Evaluation and Estimation of Eurasian and West Pacific Teleconnection Pattern in CMIP5

The historical and future relationships between Eurasian (EU) and West Pacific (WP) teleconnection patterns, and regional winter temperature and precipitation in East Asia are evaluated by using 14 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) Most of the models in CMIP5 have a good ability in simulating the interannual variabilities and spatial patterns of EU and WP, but there still exist certain deviations in the simulated positions of EU and WP. (2) Some of these models could reproduce the negative correlativity between EU and East Asia and Northwest Pacific surface air temperature, but their skill in simulating the relationship between EU and precipitation in North China and Huang-Huai valley was poor. Meanwhile, all of models underestimated the relationship between EU and temperature and precipitation in East Asia. (3) Each individual model and multi-model ensemble mean both showed a high capability in simulating the relationship between WP and temperature in East Asia-Western Pacific region. The positive correlation between WP and precipitation in Northeast Asia and the Okhotsk Sea could be well reproduced; however, their capability for the simulation of the negative correlation from mainland China to western Pacific was poor. It is found that all the models could better simulate the relationship between WP and temperature compared to the simulation of relationship between WP and precipitation. (4) In terms of simulation ability score, CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 on the EU simulation is the strongest and CNRM-CM5 on WP is the best. HadCM3 has the worst model skill scores. (5) Under the RCP4.5 scenario, EU and WP in the future tend to be slightly more in negative phase. Significantly correlated area between EU and temperature in East Asia would shift southeastward based on CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 simulation, while the correlation between EU and precipitation would be insignificant. The correlated area between WP and temperature would shift westward in the high latitudes and eastward in the low latitudes, and the correlation between WP and precipitation would become stronger according to CNRM-CM5 simulation.