Ingredients-Based Heavy Rainfall Forecasting

An approach to forecast heavy precipitation is developed, using the concept of basic ingredients. Analyses of the heavy rainfall cases in 2007 and 2003 show that rainstorms share some common dynamic and thermodynamic environmental conditions, and their physical ingredients obviously vary with developing of deep moist convective systems in several heavy rainfall types in China. How to synthetically analyze the dynamic and thermodynamic environmental conditions and basic physical parameters in forecasting heavy rainfall is introduced. A technique for objective forecasting heavy rainfall which is applied in the National Meteorological Center is developed, using the monitor of basic ingredients variety by the numerical weather prediction output.