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王会军, 张颖, 郎咸梅. 论短期气候预测的对象问题[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2010, 15(3): 225-228. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2010.03.01
引用本文: 王会军, 张颖, 郎咸梅. 论短期气候预测的对象问题[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2010, 15(3): 225-228. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2010.03.01
WANG Huijun, ZHANG Ying, LANG Xianmei. On the Predictand of Short-Term Climate Prediction[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2010, 15(3): 225-228. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2010.03.01
Citation: WANG Huijun, ZHANG Ying, LANG Xianmei. On the Predictand of Short-Term Climate Prediction[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2010, 15(3): 225-228. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2010.03.01

论短期气候预测的对象问题

On the Predictand of Short-Term Climate Prediction

  • 摘要: 基于气候变化的物理过程和数学方面的考虑,讨论了短期气候预测的对象问题。短期气候预测对我国具有重大的经济和社会价值,但也是非常困难的科学难题和科学工程。传统的把气候距平作为预测对象的方法并不一定具有科学严谨性和应用上的高效性。因此提出把气候年际增量作为新的预测对象,并从数学物理考虑上进行了讨论。最后,基于一个气候模式的预测试验,实际检验了新的预测对象方案的效果。

     

    Abstract: Based on the physical-mathematical considerations, the authors discussed the object of the short-term climate prediction. The short-term climate prediction has extremely important potential benefit for the economy and society, but is a very difficult scientific systematic work. Traditionally, the anomaly of a variable to its climatology has been used as the object of the shortterm climate prediction. However, this approach does not necessarily contain physical-mathematical robustness. Considering that the current climate prediction skill, based on the above approach, is quite limited, the authors proposed another approach, using the interannual increment of a variable as the predicting object. The authors also provides discussion on this approach from the physical-mathematical considerations, and validation of this approach based on a climate model prediction experiment.

     

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