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叶瑜, 李秀央, 陈坤, 刘庆敏, 项海青. 大气气溶胶光学厚度与大气污染物及气象因素关系的时间序列研究[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2011, 16(2): 169-174. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2011.02.06
引用本文: 叶瑜, 李秀央, 陈坤, 刘庆敏, 项海青. 大气气溶胶光学厚度与大气污染物及气象因素关系的时间序列研究[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2011, 16(2): 169-174. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2011.02.06
Ye Yu, Li Xiuyang, Chen Kun, Liu Qingmin, Xiang Haiqing. Association of Aerosol Optical Depth with Air Pollutants and Meteorological Factors: A Time Series Analysis[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2011, 16(2): 169-174. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2011.02.06
Citation: Ye Yu, Li Xiuyang, Chen Kun, Liu Qingmin, Xiang Haiqing. Association of Aerosol Optical Depth with Air Pollutants and Meteorological Factors: A Time Series Analysis[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2011, 16(2): 169-174. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2011.02.06

大气气溶胶光学厚度与大气污染物及气象因素关系的时间序列研究

Association of Aerosol Optical Depth with Air Pollutants and Meteorological Factors: A Time Series Analysis

  • 摘要: 为探讨大气气溶胶光学厚度(Aerosol Optical Depth,AOD)与大气污染物及气象因素的关系,进而为AOD的科学预测提供参考,应用时间序列研究分析了2002年1月~2004年12月的杭州市大气AOD与污染物及气象因素数据,并以前35个月的数据建立时间序列ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)模型,用最后1个月的资料评估模型拟合效果。结果显示AOD与污染物及气象因素存在关联,经一次差分后,构建的模型为ARIMA〖BF〗(〖BFQ〗0,0,2〖BF〗)(〖BFQ〗0,0,0),Ljung-Box Q检验和残差图显示模型拟合较好。利用该模型计算2004年12月的AOD值,显示实际值均在模型拟合值的95%可信区间内,符合率达到100%。时间序列模型表明AOD与污染物及气象因素的关系较复杂,不仅受当日污染物和气象条件的影响,还受到前几日污染物累积效应的影响。

     

    Abstract: To explore the association between Aerosol Optical Depth(AOD) with air pollutants and meteorological factors, and to provide evidence for the prediction of AOD, time series analysis was used. The data of AOD, air pollutants, and meteorological factors were from January 2002 to December 2004 in Hangzhou. The data of the first 35 months was collected to establish ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)model, and the data of the last month was used for evaluation. After a time difference, ARIMA(0,0,2)(0,0,0) model was established, the Ljung-Box Q test and the residual plots showed the model fit well. The true values were all above 95% confidence level. From the model, the AOD was not only affected by the air pollutants and meteorological factors on the same day, but also by those in several days before.

     

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