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贾晓静, 韩启群. IAP AGCM模式对地面气温长期趋势的预报分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2011, 16(6): 753-759. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2011.06.09
引用本文: 贾晓静, 韩启群. IAP AGCM模式对地面气温长期趋势的预报分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2011, 16(6): 753-759. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2011.06.09
Jia Xiaojing, Han Qiqun. Analysis of the Long Term Climate Trend of the Surface Air Temperature in IAP AGCM Seasonal Ensemble Forecast[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2011, 16(6): 753-759. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2011.06.09
Citation: Jia Xiaojing, Han Qiqun. Analysis of the Long Term Climate Trend of the Surface Air Temperature in IAP AGCM Seasonal Ensemble Forecast[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2011, 16(6): 753-759. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2011.06.09

IAP AGCM模式对地面气温长期趋势的预报分析

Analysis of the Long Term Climate Trend of the Surface Air Temperature in IAP AGCM Seasonal Ensemble Forecast

  • 摘要: 分析了1979~2004年共26年中国台站地面气温的观测资料以及中国科学院大气物理研究所的大气环流模式IAP AGCM在夏季和冬季的季节集合预报结果对地面气温长期变化趋势的预报。分析结果表明,在所研究的26年中,中国大部分地区是一个增温的趋势,其中冬季增温比夏季增温显著。IAP AGCM集合预报不能很好地预报出观测资料中的地面气温长期变化趋势的幅度和空间分布。进一步的分析表明,改善数值模式对观测资料中地面气温的长期变化趋势的预报将能够提高数值模式对地面气温的预报技巧。而这种预报技巧的提高在冬季比夏季更为显著。

     

    Abstract: The influence of the longterm linear trends on the seasonal forecast skill of the surface air temperature in summer and winter over China is investigated using both observations and ensemble seasonal forecast output from the numerical model IAP AGCM (Atmospheric General Circulation Model from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)during the period from 1979 to 2004. The results show that the temperature during the 26 years show a warming trend over most of China while the warming trend in winter is more significant than that in summer. IAP AGCM ensemble forecasts cannot reasonably capture the characteristics of the longterm liner climate trends. Further study shows that the seasonal forecast skill of the surface air temperature over China can be significantly improved if the numerical model can perfectly capture the longterm linear trends in the forecasts.

     

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