高级检索
陈活泼, 孙建奇, 陈晓丽. 我国夏季降水及相关大气环流场未来变化的预估及不确定性分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2012, 17(2): 171-183. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2011.10137
引用本文: 陈活泼, 孙建奇, 陈晓丽. 我国夏季降水及相关大气环流场未来变化的预估及不确定性分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2012, 17(2): 171-183. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2011.10137
Chen Huopo, Sun Jianqi, Chen Xiaoli. The Projection and Uncertainty Analysis of Summer Precipitation in China and the Variations of Associated Atmospheric Circulation Field[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2012, 17(2): 171-183. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2011.10137
Citation: Chen Huopo, Sun Jianqi, Chen Xiaoli. The Projection and Uncertainty Analysis of Summer Precipitation in China and the Variations of Associated Atmospheric Circulation Field[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2012, 17(2): 171-183. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2011.10137

我国夏季降水及相关大气环流场未来变化的预估及不确定性分析

The Projection and Uncertainty Analysis of Summer Precipitation in China and the Variations of Associated Atmospheric Circulation Field

  • 摘要: 利用政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告(IPCC AR4)的15个耦合气候模式在不同排放情景下的模拟结果,对我国夏季降水及相关大气环流场的未来时空变化特征与模式之间的不确定性作了研究。结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,我国夏季降水表现出较强的局地特征。其中,我国东部和高原地区的降水在21世纪表现出明显的增加趋势,而且这种趋势随着变暖的加剧而增强,同时模式模拟结果之间的一致性也更好,表明这一结果的可信度较高。在全球变暖背景下,我国新疆南部地区表现为持续的降水减少趋势,而我国西南地区夏季降水的变化则呈现出先减少(21世纪初)后增加的特征,不同模式对降水这些局地特征的模拟也都表现出较好的一致性。其他地区夏季降水在21世纪的变化不大,同时模式模拟的一致性也较差。多模式模拟的我国未来百年夏季降水的这些变化特征在温室气体高、中、低不同排放情景下基本一致,A2情景预估结果变化最大,A1B次之,B1相对最小。东亚夏季大气环流场的预估结果显示,在全球变暖的背景下,大部分模式的模拟结果都表明,东亚夏季风环流有所增强,从而使得由低纬度大洋和南海地区向我国大陆的水汽输送增加,造成该地区大气含水量的增多,从而为我国东部地区夏季降水的增加提供有利条件。此外,随着全球变暖的加剧,西太平洋副热带高压持续增强,其变化对我国东部地区夏季降水的影响程度和范围也明显增大。这些环流场及其不确定性的分析结果进一步加强了我国夏季降水未来变化预估结果的可信度。

     

    Abstract: Monthly data from climate change simulations based on the 15 coupled climate system models in IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A2, A1B, and B1 are analyzed for potential future changes in summer precipitation characteristics and its associated atmospheric circulation, and the uncertainties of these results from models are also investigated. The results demonstrate that the projected summer precipitation in China shows distinctly regional characteristics. The summer precipitation in the eastern part of China and the Tibetan Plateau are projected to significantly increase in the 21st century. These increasing linear trends and the consistency of the models are also intensified with the increase of air temperature, which indicates that the projections become much more believable in these regions. However, persistent decrease of summer precipitation is projected in the southern part of Xinjiang region, and most of models show decreasing precipitation in the earlier period of the 21st century and then increasing in Southwest China. No obvious changes are projected in the other parts of China, but with larger uncertainties. The high confidence level of the multiple models ensemble results in IPCC three scenarios implies that the projected summer precipitation changes are much more believable in China, with the larger projection in A2, smaller in B1, and middle in A1B.Most of the models demonstrate that the East Asian summer monsoon will significantly intensify under global warming, which induces more water vapor transport from the South China Sea and the tropical oceans. Thus, more water vapor content will be gathered that provides a benefit background for the increasing summer precipitation in the eastern part of China. Meanwhile, the western Pacific subtropical high is also projected to significantly intensify and the impacts on the summer precipitation in the eastern part of China also obviously increase. These results from the analysis of the atmospheric circulation and the corresponding uncertainties of the models further increase the confidence level of the projected summer precipitation change in China.

     

/

返回文章
返回