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潘攀, 祝亚丽, 王纪军. 近50年黄河流域气温变化特征及背景分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2014, 19(4): 477-485. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2013.13099
引用本文: 潘攀, 祝亚丽, 王纪军. 近50年黄河流域气温变化特征及背景分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2014, 19(4): 477-485. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2013.13099
PAN Pan, ZHU Yali, WANG Jijun. Spatial-Temporal Variations of Temperature and the Cause Analyses in the Yellow River Valley during Recent 50 Years[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2014, 19(4): 477-485. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2013.13099
Citation: PAN Pan, ZHU Yali, WANG Jijun. Spatial-Temporal Variations of Temperature and the Cause Analyses in the Yellow River Valley during Recent 50 Years[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2014, 19(4): 477-485. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2013.13099

近50年黄河流域气温变化特征及背景分析

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Temperature and the Cause Analyses in the Yellow River Valley during Recent 50 Years

  • 摘要: 利用1961~2010年黄河流域142个气象观测站的资料,详细分析了近50年黄河流域气温的时空分布和变化特征。黄河流域四季平均气温均呈现东部高、西部低、南部高、北部低的空间型态。对流域气温进行经验正交分解,第一模态呈现全流域一致的增温形势,上游增温幅度最大0.40℃(10 a)-1;第二模态表现为东西部反相变化;第三模态为南北部反相变化。四季气温随时间变化均呈现上升趋势,升温幅度冬季最大0.52℃(10 a)-1,其次是春季0.30℃(10 a)-1、秋季0.26℃(10 a)-1、夏季0.14℃(10 a)-1。进一步分析表明,近50年来,黄河流域的气温增暖除了全球变暖的影响,可能还来自1980年代中期和1990年代后期两次年代际增暖的贡献,这与东亚季风的两次年代际变化时间节点是一致的。

     

    Abstract: Spatial-temporal variations of temperature in the Yellow River valley were detailedly analysed by using 142 station observation data from 1961 to 2010. With respect to spatial distribution, the temperature increases from west to east and from north to south. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the principal EOF mode is a consistent warming over the whole valley, with the strongest warming in the upper reaches of the Yellow River 0.40℃ (10 a)-1. Secondly, the EOF mode shows opposite variations in the eastern and western regions. Thirdly, it shows opposite variations in the southern and northern regions. The warming rate is the highest in winter 0.52℃ (10 a)-1, and then spring 0.30℃ (10 a)-1, autumn 0.26℃ (10 a)-1, and summer 0.14℃ (10 a)-1. Further analysis reveals that, in addition to the global warming impact, the warming in the Yellow River valley during recent 50 years can be attributed to large-scale interdecadal warming in the mid-1980s and the late 1990s. These two interdecadal warming events occurred synchronously with the interdecadal shifts of the East Asian monsoon.

     

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