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司鹏, 解以扬. 天津太阳总辐射资料的均一性分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2015, 20(3): 269-276. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2014.14075
引用本文: 司鹏, 解以扬. 天津太阳总辐射资料的均一性分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2015, 20(3): 269-276. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2014.14075
SI Peng, XIE Yiyang. Analysis of the Homogeneity of Total Solar Radiation Data in Tianjin[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2015, 20(3): 269-276. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2014.14075
Citation: SI Peng, XIE Yiyang. Analysis of the Homogeneity of Total Solar Radiation Data in Tianjin[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2015, 20(3): 269-276. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2014.14075

天津太阳总辐射资料的均一性分析

Analysis of the Homogeneity of Total Solar Radiation Data in Tianjin

  • 摘要: 采用天津地区1959~2012年太阳总辐射年、月总量资料、日照百分率及其台站元数据, 通过惩罚最大t检验和顺序算法对太阳总辐射资料的均一性进行了检验。结果表明:辐射观测仪器的变更造成了太阳总辐射序列产生不连续, 突变年代主要发生在1968年、1972年、1990年3次仪器变更年份或其附近年份, 而迁站没有造成显著影响。同时, 顺序算法检验发现, 天津地区太阳总辐射序列在20世纪80年代初(1983年前后)出现了趋势减少的渐变, 并且在月总量序列的检验中, 仪器变更的非均一性影响也体现在其中。因此, 在太阳辐射的研究工作中, 尊重原始观测数据的同时, 还要充分考虑数据的均一性, 剔除非均一性因素, 以此确保气候变化分析结果的相对真实。

     

    Abstract: The homogeneity of total solar radiation during 1959-2012 in Tianjin is examined using the penalized maximal t-test and a sequential algorithm, using data and metadata of total solar radiation and the percentage of sunshine on monthly and annual scales. Results indicate that instrument change is mainly responsible for three shifts in total solar radiation at or around 1968, 1972, and 1990, while station relocation does not play a significant role. Moreover, a gradual decline in total solar radiation in the early 1980s, around 1983, is detected using the sequential algorithm. The non-homogeneity effect of instrument change is also detected in monthly total solar radiation series. Therefore, in studies of solar radiation, we must not only respect the raw data, but also fully consider the homogeneity of the data. Excluding non-homogeneity is necessary to obtain reliable analyses of climate change.

     

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