Abstract:
Non-stationary probability models of extreme values following generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions were fitted to annual climate extremes of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and maximum daily precipitation from 489 observational stations in China spanning from their own initial times to 2013. The non-stationary return level of extremes and its derivative with respect to time as functions of return period and time were also derived. Trends and spatial patterns of linear changing rates of "ordinary state" (2-year-period return level, denoted as
z0.5) and "extreme state" (50-year-period return level, denoted as
z0.02) of climate extremes were analyzed. A special case of opposite tendencies for
z0.5 and
z0.02 was particularly investigated for its origin and possible impact. The results show that, for maximum temperature, stationary models generally fit for the monsoon area of East China, while non-stationary models dominate for other regions in China and most of them indicate increasing trends for both
z0.5 and
z0.02. For minimum temperature, non-stationary models fit nationwide in China and also indicate increasing trends for both
z0.5 and
z0.02 in general, except for a part of Northeast China where
z0.02 shows a decreasing trend opposite to
z0.5. For maximum daily precipitation, stationary models fit overwhelmingly in China. When the scale parameter of GEV distribution changes with time, the variability of
z0.02 is much greater than that of
z0.5 and, consequently, opposite tendencies may happen for them. In particular, when
z0.5 becomes mild as
z0.02 becomes more extreme, much more intense disastrous weather may occur.