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谢瑾博, 曾毓金, 张明华, 谢正辉. 气候变化和人类活动对中国东部季风区水循环影响的检测和归因[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2016, 21(1): 87-98. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15097
引用本文: 谢瑾博, 曾毓金, 张明华, 谢正辉. 气候变化和人类活动对中国东部季风区水循环影响的检测和归因[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2016, 21(1): 87-98. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15097
XIE Jinbo, ZENG Yujin, ZHANG Minghua, XIE Zhenghui. Detection and Attribution of the Inflence of Climate Change and Human Activity on Hydrological Cycle in China's Eastern Monsoon Area[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2016, 21(1): 87-98. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15097
Citation: XIE Jinbo, ZENG Yujin, ZHANG Minghua, XIE Zhenghui. Detection and Attribution of the Inflence of Climate Change and Human Activity on Hydrological Cycle in China's Eastern Monsoon Area[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2016, 21(1): 87-98. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2015.15097

气候变化和人类活动对中国东部季风区水循环影响的检测和归因

Detection and Attribution of the Inflence of Climate Change and Human Activity on Hydrological Cycle in China's Eastern Monsoon Area

  • 摘要: 水文循环过程受气候变化与人类活动的共同作用,区分气候内部自然变率与人类活动作用于水循环贡献对于增加气候变化的理解非常重要。本研究利用近期发展的考虑地下水取用水与灌溉影响的全球陆气耦合模式进行数值模拟,基于最优指纹法分析探讨中国东部季风区黄河、淮河、海河、珠江、长江、松花江流域水循环变化(地表温度、降水、径流、蒸散发)及归因。结果表明:大部分流域的地表温度年际变化在1965~2005年间检测到包括温室气体气溶胶人为排放、臭氧与土地利用变化产生的外强迫效应,显示在长期对于地表温度起主要作用的可能为上述强迫;1965~2005年降水年际变化仅在淮河及长江下游检测到上述强迫效应,且在长江下游效应占主导。在1965~1984年间,地表温度的年际变化在海河流域检测到由于地下水取水灌溉产生的外强迫效应,并且该效应占主导。在1982~2005年径流年际变化中,在淮河、长江下游及黄河下游处检测到了由于温室气体排放、气溶胶人为排放、臭氧变化及土地利用变化等产生的外强迫效应但无法有效分离,显示该信号在这些地区可能不为主导效应;1982~2005年间的蒸散发年际变化在珠江、长江下游同样检测到了上述强迫效应,并且该效应在长江下游占主导效应。

     

    Abstract: The hydrological cycle is affected by both climate change and human activity, and separation of the effects of internal variability and human activity is important to a better understanding of climate change. The current study uses an atmosphere-land interaction model that considers the effect of anthropogenic ground water exploitation and consumption to simulate the climate response to various factors. On the basis of the Optimal Fingerprint Detection and Attribution method, this study analyzes the hydrological change (presented by the annual change in surface temperature, precipitation, water resource, and evapotranspiration) in China's six major river basins within the eastern monsoon area-those of the Yellow River, Huaihe River, Haihe River, Zhujiang River, Yangtze River, and Songhuajiang River. The results are as follows:The forcing effects of greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosol projection, ozone change, and land-use change are detected in the surface temperature in most basins for the period 1965-2005, indicating a major influence of these forcings in long-term surface temperature change. In the annual precipitation change over the same period, these forcing effects are only detectable in the Huaihe and lower Yangtze River basins, and are a major factor in the latter of the two. During the period 1965-1984, a forcing effect of anthropogenic groundwater exploitation and consumption is detectable, being a major factor in these areas. In the water resource series of 1982-2005, the forcing effects of greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosol projection, ozone change, and land-use change are detectable for the Huaihe, lower Yangtze, and lower Yellow River basins, but may not be the major factor. In the evapotranspiration series for the same period, the above forcing effects are only detectable in the Zhujiang and lower Yangtze river basins, but are major effects in the latter of these two basins only.

     

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