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吴保见, 王昆, 贾立, 郭瑞萍. 源项对FLEXPART模式模拟福岛核事故放射性物质长距离传输的影响[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2017, 22(1): 10-22. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.15246
引用本文: 吴保见, 王昆, 贾立, 郭瑞萍. 源项对FLEXPART模式模拟福岛核事故放射性物质长距离传输的影响[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2017, 22(1): 10-22. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.15246
Baojian WU, Kun WANG, Li JIA, Ruiping GUO. Influences of Source Term on Long-Range Transport of Radionuclides from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident with FLEXPART Model[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2017, 22(1): 10-22. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.15246
Citation: Baojian WU, Kun WANG, Li JIA, Ruiping GUO. Influences of Source Term on Long-Range Transport of Radionuclides from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident with FLEXPART Model[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2017, 22(1): 10-22. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.15246

源项对FLEXPART模式模拟福岛核事故放射性物质长距离传输的影响

Influences of Source Term on Long-Range Transport of Radionuclides from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident with FLEXPART Model

  • 摘要: 对包括拉格朗日粒子模式在内的大气扩散模式,提供准确的源项有助于获取更好的模拟结果。以日本福岛核电站2011年3月发生的核泄漏事故为研究对象,采用日本原子能机构Terada源项以及挪威大气研究所Stohl源项,利用FLEXPART(FLEXible PARTicle dispersion mode)模拟了放射性物质137Cs在全球大气中扩散传输的过程,并利用大气辐射监测数据讨论了基于两种源项模拟烟云的时空分布特征,探讨了源项对模拟结果的不确定性影响。结果显示:Terada源项及Stohl源项之间释放总量、释放速率、释放高度等虽然略有差别,但总体趋势描述相似,使得基于两源项的模拟烟云的扩散过程及影响区域基本一致。两模拟烟云在中纬度西风带作用下,均表现为自西向东扩散,经过太平洋、美洲大陆、欧洲,最后在整个北半球传输。基于两源项在亚洲-太平洋及北美大陆等近距离的模拟烟云的首次到达时间与首次监测时间吻合度较好,在全球尺度上基于Stohl源项的模拟在首次到达时间方面表现更优。其次,基于两源项进行全球尺度的模拟,近距离站点的模拟效果优于远距离站点模拟效果,且基于Stohl源项的模拟精度较好,Terada源项可能存在低估。另外模式进行全球尺度的模拟时,针对不同粒子数目对模拟结果的影响进行了分析,发现粒子数目的多寡对模拟精度有所影响,也影响模拟烟云扩散后期的疏密程度。

     

    Abstract: The lagrangian particle dispersion models require an accurate source term as input to obtain better simulation results. In this paper, two different 137Cs source terms of Fukushima accident from Terada and Stohl were utilized. The FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle dispersion mode) was used to simulate global atmospheric dispersion and transport of radionuclides released from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. The atmospheric radiation monitoring data enable us to assess the spatial-temporal distribution of the two radioactive plumes and explore the uncertainty in results due to the different source terms. The results showed that despite the differences in the total emission, emission rate, and height of emission between the source terms of Terada and Stohl, the two source terms were alike in the whole developing trend. Thereby the two radioactive plumes had similar diffusion processes and reached similar regions. Under the influence of mid-latitude westerlies, the two radioactive plumes moved eastward across the Pacific Ocean, the American continent and Continental Europe, and eventually spread over the entire Northern Hemisphere. For short-range stations in the Asia-Pacific and North American regions, the simulated time of first detection of radioactive plume arriving at these stations with the two source terms both agreed well with the observed time. For long-range stations, the simulated time of first detection of the radioactive plume at these stations agreed better with the observed time when using the Stohl source term as input compared to that using the Terada source term as input. Second, using the two different source terms as input respectively, FLEXPART was applied to simulate global atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides. Results indicated that the simulated radioactivity concentrations were more accurate at the short-range stations than at the long-range stations. In addition, the simulated radioactivity concentrations were more accurate with Stohl's source term as input than that with Terada's source term as input. Terada's source term appeared to be lower than observations. Finally, the influence of the number of particles in the global model simulation was evaluated. It was found that differences in the number of particles could affect the statistical indexes of long-range transport of pollutants and the density of the diffusive radioactive plume in its late stage.

     

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