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宋帅峰, 延晓冬. 2022. CMIP6全球气候模式对中国冬季寒潮频次模拟能力的评估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(1): 33−49. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21026
引用本文: 宋帅峰, 延晓冬. 2022. CMIP6全球气候模式对中国冬季寒潮频次模拟能力的评估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(1): 33−49. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21026
SONG Shuaifeng, YAN Xiaodong. 2022. Evaluation of CMIP6 Models Performance for Winter Cold Wave Frequency in China [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (1): 33−49. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21026
Citation: SONG Shuaifeng, YAN Xiaodong. 2022. Evaluation of CMIP6 Models Performance for Winter Cold Wave Frequency in China [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (1): 33−49. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21026

CMIP6全球气候模式对中国冬季寒潮频次模拟能力的评估

Evaluation of CMIP6 Models Performance for Winter Cold Wave Frequency in China

  • 摘要: 基于1961~2013年观测资料和第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中32个气候模式的最低气温数据,评估了各模式及多模式集合平均方法对中国冬季寒潮频次的模拟能力,并筛选了中国不同区域的最优模式,为中国未来寒潮频次预估和气候模式改进提供理论支撑。结果表明,CMIP6全球气候模式可以很好地再现出中国冬季寒潮频次由北向南逐级递减的空间特征,EC-Earth3-Veg对中国寒潮频次模拟能力最好;绝大多数模式可以模拟出中国冬季寒潮频次下降的趋势,但对趋势变化幅度的模拟能力则相对有限。多模式等权重集合平均和多模式中位数集合平均较单一模式分别对中国北方地区和南方地区冬季寒潮频次空间格局的模拟效果改进显著,但是对趋势值的模拟普遍偏低。

     

    Abstract: Based on the observational data from 1961 to 2013 and the minimum temperature data of 32 climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the individual model and multi-model ensemble average ability to simulate the frequency of winter cold waves in China was evaluated. The authors selected the best models in different regions of China to provide theoretical support for future cold wave frequency projection and climate model improvement over China. The results reveal that CMIP6 global climate models can well reproduce the spatial characteristics of the cold wave frequency that gradually decreases from north to south. EC-Earth3-Veg has the best ability to stimulate the cold wave frequency over China. Most models can simulate the downward trend of the cold wave frequency, but the ability to simulate the magnitude of trend changes is relatively limited. Compared with the single model, the multi-model equal weight average and multi-model median average improve the simulation effect of the spatial pattern of the winter cold wave frequency in northern China and southern China, respectively. However, the simulation of the trend is generally low.

     

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