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王文杰, 钱诚, 张宇, 等. 2022. 1961~2020年中国两大林区森林火险天气的多尺度特征[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(5): 559−577. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21097
引用本文: 王文杰, 钱诚, 张宇, 等. 2022. 1961~2020年中国两大林区森林火险天气的多尺度特征[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(5): 559−577. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21097
WANG Wenjie, QIAN Cheng, ZHANG Yu, et al. 2022. Multi-time Scale Features of Fire Weather in Two Major Forests in China during 1961–2020 [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (5): 559−577. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21097
Citation: WANG Wenjie, QIAN Cheng, ZHANG Yu, et al. 2022. Multi-time Scale Features of Fire Weather in Two Major Forests in China during 1961–2020 [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (5): 559−577. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21097

1961~2020年中国两大林区森林火险天气的多尺度特征

Multi-time Scale Features of Fire Weather in Two Major Forests in China during 1961–2020

  • 摘要: 近年来,世界各地的极端林火事件已呈现出多发态势。林火作为一种复合型极端事件,它的发生和蔓延与气象条件有着密切联系,在全球变暖的背景下,研究林区森林火险天气的变化特征可以为“碳中和”背景下的森林防火工作提供科学的信息。本文以逐日森林火险气象指数(FFDI)作为火险天气的度量指标,分析了该指数的适用性及空间分布特征,进而分析了1961~2020年东北和西南两大林区FFDI及相关气象因子的线性变化趋势;最后利用集合经验模分解(EEMD)的方法揭示了两大林区防火期FFDI的多时间尺度演变特征。研究发现:在季节以及年时间尺度上,FFDI的分布具有明显的区域特征,东北地区在春季、秋季处于高值期,而西南地区则集中在春季和冬季,这与两大林区的森林防火期有很好的对应关系。各个季节FFDI呈现显著增长的站点数在10%~20%左右,春季最多(21%)。东北林区FFDI的变化趋势在四季都不显著;但相关气象因子中的日最高气温在四季都呈现显著的变暖趋势,平均风速在四季都呈现显著减弱的趋势。西南林区四季的FFDI都呈现显著(至少是0.1水平下的)增长态势,其中春、冬季防火期的趋势分别为0.09/10 a(P<0.1)和0.05/10 a(P<0.1);夏、秋、冬三个季节显著变暖又显著变干(P<0.05),朝着 “暖干化”的气候特征演变。年际变率在两大林区FFDI的演变中贡献超70%;东北春季和秋季防火期FFDI的非线性趋势分别呈先快速上升后减缓和先快速上升后转为下降的趋势;西南春季防火期FFDI的非线性趋势从上个世纪的稳定少变转为21世纪开始呈现快速上升的趋势,冬季防火期FFDI则总体呈稳步上升趋势。因此,西南林区的防火形势正变得愈发地严峻。

     

    Abstract: Globally, there have been frequent occurrences of extreme forest fire incidents in recent years. As one kind of the compound extreme events, the occurrence and spread of forest fires are closely associated with meteorological conditions. Under global warming, investigating the changing characteristics of forest fire risk can provide valuable scientific information for forest fire prevention activities in the context of carbon neutrality. In this study, the daily forest fire danger index (FFDI) was used to measure fire weather, and the applicability and spatial distribution of this index were analyzed. In addition, the linear trend in FFDI and related meteorological factors in two major forest areas during 1961–2020 were analyzed. Finally, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method was used to reveal the multi-time scale characteristics of FFDI in the two forest areas. The results show that the spatial distribution of FFDI has obvious regional characteristics on seasonal and annual time scales. Northeast China has a high FFDI during spring and autumn, whereas southwest China has a high FFDI during spring and winter. These seasonal variations show a good corresponding relationship with the forest fire prevention period in the two forest regions. The number of stations showing a significant increasing trend in FFDI in each season is around 10%–20%, with the highest in spring (21%). The linear trends in FFDI in the northeastern forest area are not significant in all seasons; however, among relevant meteorological factors, the daily maximum temperature and average wind speed respectively show a significant warming trend and a significant weakening trend in all seasons. The FFDI in all seasons of the southwestern forest area showed a significant increasing trend at a level of 0.1 at least, among which the trends during the spring and winter fire prevention periods were 0.09/10 a (P<0.1) and 0.05/10 a (P<0.1), respectively. The summer, autumn, and winter periods showed a significant warming and drying trend (P<0.05). The interannual variability contributes more than 70% to the evolution of FFDI in the two forest areas. The nonlinear trend of FFDI in the spring and autumn fire prevention periods in northeast China showed a rapid rise at first and then a decline. The nonlinear trend of FFDI in the spring fire season in southwest China changed from a stable stage in the last century to a rapidly increasing trend in the 21st century, whereas the overall trend of FFDI during the winter fire season increased steadily. Therefore, the situation of fire risk in forests of southwest China is increasingly becoming severe.

     

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