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高淑媛, 李瑷蔚, 黄金龙, 等. 2022. 全球升温1.5°C和2.0°C情景下中国乡村振兴核心区极端降水的变化特征[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(1): 123−133. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21113
引用本文: 高淑媛, 李瑷蔚, 黄金龙, 等. 2022. 全球升温1.5°C和2.0°C情景下中国乡村振兴核心区极端降水的变化特征[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(1): 123−133. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21113
GAO Shuyuan, LI Aiwei, HUANG Jinlong, et al. 2022. Projected Changes of Extreme Precipitation in Rural Revitalization Areas in China under 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global Warming Scenarios [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (1): 123−133. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21113
Citation: GAO Shuyuan, LI Aiwei, HUANG Jinlong, et al. 2022. Projected Changes of Extreme Precipitation in Rural Revitalization Areas in China under 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global Warming Scenarios [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (1): 123−133. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21113

全球升温1.5°C和2.0°C情景下中国乡村振兴核心区极端降水的变化特征

Projected Changes of Extreme Precipitation in Rural Revitalization Areas in China under 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global Warming Scenarios

  • 摘要: 中国乡村振兴核心区生态环境较脆弱,暴雨洪涝等气象灾害频发,在此背景下,定量、科学地评估乡村振兴核心区全球升温情景下极端降水的变化特征,能够为乡村振兴核心区防止因灾返贫策略等的制定提供一定的科学依据。本研究基于CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6)气候模式下不同SSPs-RCPs(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways)组合情景模拟数据,对全球升温1.5°C和2.0°C情景下中国乡村振兴核心区极端降水事件频次、强度和持续时间的变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)相对于基准期(1995~2014年),全球升温1.5°C情景下,乡村振兴核心区受极端降水影响明显增大,面积占比60.91%的区域极端降水频次增加,面积占比88.19%的区域极端降水强度增强,面积占比81.07%的区域极端降水持续时间增加;(2)全球升温2.0°C情景下,乡村振兴核心区三项极端降水指标变化与升温1.5°C情景下相似,相对于基准期有增加趋势,极端降水频次、强度和持续时间面积占比分别为55.78%、85.24%、79.33%;(3)从空间角度分析,全球升温1.5°C和2.0°C情景下,乡村振兴核心区中西部相较东部可能更易受极端降水的影响,西藏片区频次和持续时间增加显著,尤其值得关注;(4)当全球升温从1.5°C到2.0°C情景,乡村振兴核心区整体极端降水特征的变化未表现出明显增减趋势及空间特征。相比1.5°C较基准期的变化,2.0°C情景下极端降水频次、强度、持续时间的增加区域范围均缩小,但平均增幅均变大,对于发生极端降水事件的乡村振兴核心区区域而言可能面临更大的风险。

     

    Abstract: The ecological environments of rural revitalization areas in China are relatively fragile. Additionally, meteorological disasters, e.g., heavy rains and floods, occur frequently in these areas. Thus, a quantitative and scientific evaluation of characteristic changes of precipitation extremes in rural revitalization areas at different global warming levels can provide a scientific basis for the formulation of strategies to prevent these areas from returning to poverty due to meteorological disasters. Here, we investigated changes in characteristics of precipitation extremes, i.e., frequency, intensity, and duration, under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming scenarios, across rural revitalization areas in China. We used fourteen global climate models under four different emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) from the latest Sixth phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project for analysis. Run-theory was also used to analyze the characteristics of extreme precipitation events. Under 1.5°C warming scenario, the frequency, intensity, and duration of the precipitation extremes were predicted to increase 60.91%, 88.19%, and 81.07% over the entire region, respectively, relative to a reference period (1995–2014). Under 2°C warming scenario, changes in precipitation extreme characteristics were predicted to increase 55.78%, 85.24%, and 79.33% over the entire region, respectively. The central and western regions of the rural revitalization areas were expected to be more susceptible to precipitation extremes compared with the eastern parts for both 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming levels. These changes in frequency and duration were predominant in the Tibet region, which is of great concern. The additional 0.5°C of warming (from 1.5°C to 2.0°C) will lead to fewer areas affected by precipitation extremes for the studied areas. However, these extreme events will be more severe and have longer durations in the affected regions. These findings necessitate the initiation of urgent mitigation and adaptation measures to combat precipitation-related extreme events across rural revitalization areas in China.

     

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