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钟洋洋, 钱诚. 2022. 中国地区春霜冻的变化趋势和未来情景预估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(1): 50−62. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21162
引用本文: 钟洋洋, 钱诚. 2022. 中国地区春霜冻的变化趋势和未来情景预估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(1): 50−62. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21162
ZHONG Yangyang, QIAN Cheng. 2022. Historical Change and Future Projection of Spring Frost in China [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (1): 50−62. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21162
Citation: ZHONG Yangyang, QIAN Cheng. 2022. Historical Change and Future Projection of Spring Frost in China [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (1): 50−62. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21162

中国地区春霜冻的变化趋势和未来情景预估

Historical Change and Future Projection of Spring Frost in China

  • 摘要: 春季的霜冻事件是北半球温带地区与农业相关的最严重的极端事件之一。在气候变化背景下,探究整个中国地区春霜冻的变化趋势和未来可能变化有利于增进人们对春霜冻的认识,对我国未来农业结构调整有一定的参考价值。本文采用不易受离群值影响且考虑了自相关的非参数方法,在分析1960~2020年观测资料的基础上,利用24个耦合模式比较计划第6阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, CMIP6)模式模拟的中等辐射强迫(SSP2-4.5)情景下的逐日最低温数据,在评估模式模拟性能后对中国地区未来(2021~2100年)的春霜冻日数、终霜日的变化趋势的空间分布特征以及与1991~2020年气候态相比的全国平均的距平序列进行了分析。结果表明:1)1960~2020年,全国约60.3%站点的春霜冻日数呈现显著减少趋势−3.5~0 d (10 a)−1,40%站点的终霜日呈显著提前趋势−4.3~0 d (10 a)−1;全国平均的春霜冻日数呈−1.3 d (10 a)−1的显著减少趋势,终霜日则呈−1.7 d (10 a)−1的显著提前趋势。2)2021~2100年,预估我国大部分地区的春霜冻日数均呈现显著减少趋势−1.6~0 d (10 a)−1,终霜日则呈显著提前趋势−1.4~0 d (10 a)−1;全国平均的春霜冻日数呈现−0.8 d (10 a)−1的显著减少趋势,终霜日呈现−0.8 d (10 a)−1的显著提前趋势。

     

    Abstract: Spring frost is one of the most critical extreme events related with agriculture in northern temperate zone. In the context of climate change, research on the previous tendency and probable future change in the spring frost all over China can enhance people’s understanding, and it also has some reference value for adjustment of agricultural structure. Using a non-parametric method that is not sensitive to outliers and takes into account autocorrelation as the method of trend analysis, this study first analyzed the historical changes based on the meteorological observation data from 1960 to 2020. Then, based on the climate data simulated by 24 models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and the results of model evaluation, the future trend in spring frost from 2021 to 2100 was analyzed under the moderate radiative forcing scenario (SSP2-4.5), including the spatial distribution and national average anomalies compared with the 1991–2020 climatology. The main conclusions are summarized as follows: 1) From 1960 to 2020, the number of spring frost days of 60.3% stations across China showed a significantly decreasing trend −3.5 – 0 d (10 a)−1, and the last frost date of 40% stations showed a significant advancing trend −4.3 – 0 d (10 a)−1. Moreover, national-averaged anomalies for the number of spring frost days during 1960–2020 in China showed a significantly decreasing trend −1.3 d (10 a)−1, while those for the last frost date showed a significantly advancing trend −1.7 d (10 a)−1. 2) From 2021 to 2100, it is estimated that the number of spring frost days across China will decrease significantly −1.6 – 0 d (10 a)−1, and the last frost day will advance significantly −1.4 – 0 d (10 a)−1. In addition, national-averaged anomalies for the number of spring frost days in China will show a significantly decreasing trend at a rate of −0.8 d (10 a)−1, and those for the last frost date will show a significantly advancing trend at a rate of −0.8 d (10 a)−1.

     

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