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吴骥, 陈卫东, 字俣丞, 等. 2022. 寒潮天气过程对风/光伏发电资源要素数值预报技巧影响的检验分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(6): 769−777. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21173
引用本文: 吴骥, 陈卫东, 字俣丞, 等. 2022. 寒潮天气过程对风/光伏发电资源要素数值预报技巧影响的检验分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(6): 769−777. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21173
WU Ji, CHEN Weidong, ZI Yucheng, et al. 2022. Verification and Analysis of the Impact of Cold Wave Weather Process on the Numerical Prediction Skills of Wind/Photovoltaic Power Resource Elements [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (6): 769−777. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21173
Citation: WU Ji, CHEN Weidong, ZI Yucheng, et al. 2022. Verification and Analysis of the Impact of Cold Wave Weather Process on the Numerical Prediction Skills of Wind/Photovoltaic Power Resource Elements [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (6): 769−777. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21173

寒潮天气过程对风/光伏发电资源要素数值预报技巧影响的检验分析

Verification and Analysis of the Impact of Cold Wave Weather Process on the Numerical Prediction Skills of Wind/Photovoltaic Power Resource Elements

  • 摘要: 基于ERA-5再分析资料和NCEP的GFS预报系统的120 h预报资料,对华东地区2020年12月至2021年3月期间9次寒潮过程中数值模式的近地面风速和向下净短波辐射通量预报技巧进行了检验,检验结果表明:1)GFS预报系统在提前1~4 d均能准确预报出寒潮过程(降温幅度和最低温度),平均预报命中率均在80%以上。2)在寒潮过程中,近地面风速会明显增强,虽然0~2级风速预报评分明显降低,但对3~5级和6级以上的风速预报评分(Threat Score, TS)反而较一般天气过程高;而向下净短波辐射通量预报相对误差要比一般天气过程偏大,尤其在寒潮爆发日最大。3)在寒潮过程中预报技巧具有明显日变化特征,0~2级风速预报技巧下午最低,尤其在寒潮最强日最明显;3~5级风速预报技巧在18:00(协调世界时)左右最低,在寒潮最强日夜间都很低。而向下净短波辐射通量预报下午以后预报误差显著增大,尤其在寒潮爆发日误差最大。4)在寒潮过程中,预报技巧随着预报时效的延长而降低,其中24 h预报TS评分较高,误差较小。72 h评分较低,误差较大。

     

    Abstract: Based on the reanalysis data of ERA-5 and the 120-h prediction data of Global Forecast System (GFS), which is the NCEP prediction system, this paper examines the prediction skills of near-surface wind speed and net downward short-wave radiation flux of the numerical model during nine cold waves in East China from December 2020 to March 2021. The following test results are obtained: 1) The GFS prediction system can accurately predict the cold wave process (cooling range and minimum temperature) 1–4 days in advance, with an average prediction accuracy > 80%. 2) The near-surface wind speed increases significantly during the cold wave. Even though the Threat Score (TS) of the wind speed of grades 0–2 is significantly low, the TS score of the wind speed of grades 3–5 and >6 is higher than the general weather process. The relative error in the prediction of the net downward short-wave radiation flux is larger than the general weather processes, particularly on the day of the cold wave outbreak. 3) The prediction skills exhibit significant diurnal variation, during the cold wave. The prediction skill of the wind speed of grades 0–2 is the lowest in the afternoon, particularly on the strongest day of the cold wave. The TS score of the wind speed of grades 3–5 is generally the lowest at around 1800 LST and is extremely low at night on the strongest day of the cold wave. After the afternoon, particularly on the day of the cold wave outbreak, the error in the prediction of the net downward short-wave radiation flux increases significantly. 4) The prediction skills decrease and the prediction time increases during the cold wave. The 24-h prediction has the highest TS score and the minimum error, while the 72-h prediction has the lowest TS score and the maximum error.

     

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