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张瑶, 曹丽娟, 朱亚妮. 2023. 黑龙江气温资料均一性订正及长期趋势分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(5): 461−470. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21146
引用本文: 张瑶, 曹丽娟, 朱亚妮. 2023. 黑龙江气温资料均一性订正及长期趋势分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(5): 461−470. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21146
ZHANG Yao, CAO Lijuan, ZHU Yani. 2023. Homogeneity Correction and Long-Term Trend Analysis of Heilongjiang Temperature Data [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (5): 461−470. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21146
Citation: ZHANG Yao, CAO Lijuan, ZHU Yani. 2023. Homogeneity Correction and Long-Term Trend Analysis of Heilongjiang Temperature Data [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (5): 461−470. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21146

黑龙江气温资料均一性订正及长期趋势分析

Homogeneity Correction and Long-Term Trend Analysis of Heilongjiang Temperature Data

  • 摘要: 采用加拿大环境部研发的RHtests均一化系统,结合台站详细的历史沿革信息,对1951~2019年黑龙江省83个气象台站逐日平均、最高和最低气温进行了均一性检验和订正,与均一化逐日气温数据集(CHTM)进行了对比研制,重点评估了最近10年观测仪器换型对资料均一性的影响;基于均一化气温日值数据,统计了黑龙江省极端气温指数:持续冷日日数(CSDI)、霜冻日数(FD)、冰冻日数(ID)和气温日较差(DTR)。结果表明:1951~2019年,日平均气温、最高气温和最低气温分别存在40个、20个和57个断点,台站迁移、仪器变化和自动观测业务软件升级是造成黑龙江省气温序列非均一的主要原因,订正后的气温序列空间一致性更高,平均气温和最低气温的变化趋势分别由0.27°C/10 a和0.25°C/10 a上升为0.29°C/10 a和0.27°C/10 a。黑龙江省CSDI、FD和ID等极端气温指数均呈明显下降趋势,1998年中国平均气温出现历史上第二次最热记录,黑龙江省FD指数的最低值也出现在1998年。黑龙江省平均最高气温升温趋势比平均最低气温升温趋势略小,造成DTR呈现下降趋势。

     

    Abstract: Using comprehensive metadata, homogeneity test and corrections were conducted on daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures at 83 stations in Heilongjiang from 1951 to 2019.The penalized maximal t-test (PMT) and penalized maximal F-test (PMF) methods from the RH test software package developed by Environment Canada were employed. The adjusted series were compared to the CHTM dataset, with a focus on how changes in observation instruments affected data homogeneity over the past decade. From the homogenized daily temperature data spanning from 1951 to 2019, the following climate extreme indices in Heilongjiang were calculated: Cold spell duration index (CSDI), frost days (FD), icing days (ID), and daily temperature range (DTR). The analysis identified 40, 20, and 57 changepoints in daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures, respectively. The primary reasons for data discontinuity were station relocations, instrument changes, and automatic observation software upgrades. Spatial consistency improved after corrections were applied. After adjustment, the long-term trends for mean and minimum temperatures increased from 0.27°C/10 a and 0.25°C/10 a to 0.29°C/10 a and 0.27°C/10 a, respectively. The CSDI, FD, and ID indices in Heilongjiang demonstrated a significant downward trend, aligning with the national climate warming pattern. The lowest FD index value occurred in 1998, coinciding with China’s second hottest recorded mean temperature. The warming trend of the annual mean maximum temperature in Heilongjiang was slightly less than that of the annual mean minimum temperature, resulting in a decreasing trend for DTR.

     

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