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彭道福, 乐旭, 朱君, 等. 2023. 2019~2020年北极野火极端事件的气象成因解析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(2): 195−206. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.22011
引用本文: 彭道福, 乐旭, 朱君, 等. 2023. 2019~2020年北极野火极端事件的气象成因解析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(2): 195−206. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.22011
PENG Daofu, YUE Xu, ZHU Jun, et al. 2023. Exploration of the Meteorological Drivers of Extreme Wildfire Events in the Arctic during 2019–2020 [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (2): 195−206. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.22011
Citation: PENG Daofu, YUE Xu, ZHU Jun, et al. 2023. Exploration of the Meteorological Drivers of Extreme Wildfire Events in the Arctic during 2019–2020 [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (2): 195−206. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.22011

2019~2020年北极野火极端事件的气象成因解析

Exploration of the Meteorological Drivers of Extreme Wildfire Events in the Arctic during 2019–2020

  • 摘要: 利用MERRA-2再分析气象变量(降雪量、降水量、地表风速、相对湿度、2 m气温、日最高气温)和加拿大火险天气指数,通过逐步回归方法构建1997~2020年间北极不同关键区内气象因子与野火碳排放量之间的关系,在此基础上解析北极地区2019~2020年野火极端事件的主导气象因子。结果显示在北极的3个关键区中,野火排放的主导因子都是火险指数之一的粗腐殖质湿度码(Duff Moisture Code, DMC)。2019~2020年北极地区850 hPa位势高度异常偏高,带来极端升高的日最高温和显著减少的降水,共同导致异常偏高的DMC值并促进了野火极端事件的爆发。这一结果表明高温和干旱等气候异常对于目前频发的北极野火有较强的促进作用。

     

    Abstract: Wildfire activities in the Arctic have increased in recent years, especially after the extraordinary explosions in 2019–2020. This study investigated the relationships between wildfire carbon emissions and meteorological factors in the key regions of the Arctic during 1997–2020, with the stepwise regression method using a series of meteorological variables (snowfall, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, 2-m air temperature, and daily maximum temperature) from MERRA-2 reanalyses and the Fire Weather Index (FWI). The authors further explored the dominant meteorological drivers for the large wildfires in the Arctic during 2019–2020. Results showed that in all three key regions, the Duff Moisture Code (DMC) from FWI makes the dominant contribution to wildfire emissions. The anomalously high geopotential height results in an extremely increased daily maximum temperature and significantly reduced precipitation, jointly leading to anomalously high DMC and consequent wildfire episodes during 2019–2020. This result suggests that climatic anomalies such as warming and drought promote frequent wildfire activities in the Arctic.

     

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