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古再丽努尔·亚森, 张京朋, 赵天保. 2023. CMIP6多模式对21世纪中亚极端降水未来变化预估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(3): 286−302. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.22021
引用本文: 古再丽努尔·亚森, 张京朋, 赵天保. 2023. CMIP6多模式对21世纪中亚极端降水未来变化预估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(3): 286−302. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.22021
GVZELNUR·Yasin , ZHANG Jingpeng, ZHAO Tianbao. 2023. CMIP6 Model-Projected Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation over Central Asia in the 21st Century [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (3): 286−302. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.22021
Citation: GVZELNUR·Yasin , ZHANG Jingpeng, ZHAO Tianbao. 2023. CMIP6 Model-Projected Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation over Central Asia in the 21st Century [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (3): 286−302. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.22021

CMIP6多模式对21世纪中亚极端降水未来变化预估

CMIP6 Model-Projected Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation over Central Asia in the 21st Century

  • 摘要: 基于最新的第六次国际耦合模式比较计划 (CMIP6)14个耦合模式的数值模拟结果,预估研究了中等强迫情景(SSP2-4.5)和高强迫情景(SSP5-8.5)两种共享社会经济路径下21世纪中后期中亚极端降水事件的时空分布特征及其与区域气候增暖之间的关系。结果显示,大多数CMIP6模式基本能够模拟出历史观测降水气候态(1979~2018年)的空间分布特征,但在中亚西南及东南部偏干,北部及中南部偏湿。与历史基准期(1981~2010年)相比,21世纪末期(2071~2100年)中亚强降水强度在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下分别增加0.54 mm/10 a和2.4 mm/10 a,而强降水发生频率则分别增加了5%~27%和6%~210%,尤其是中南部高海拔山区增加的幅度更大。预估结果的信噪比显示,天山以北的中亚东北部区域的极端降水强度及其发生频率的预估结果具有更高的可信度。气候变暖对未来中亚极端降水事件的发生频次具有明显的调控作用,在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下,当气温每升高1 K时,极端强降水事件的发生频次在分别增加约7 d和9 d,而最大连续无降水日数则分别增加约3 d和6 d。

     

    Abstract: Based on the numerical simulations provided by the latest 14 coupled models of the sixth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6), the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation over Central Asia (CA) and its relationship with regional climate warming in the middle and late 21st century under two shared socioeconomic paths (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) are analyzed in this study. The results show that most CMIP6 models can essentially simulate the spatial distribution characteristics of observed precipitation climate states from 1979–2018. However, the model simulations underestimate the observations in the southwest and southeast of CA and overestimate the observations in northern and southern CA. Compared with the historical period (1981–2010), the precipitation intensity at the end of the 21st century (2071–2100) increased by 0.54 mm/10 a and 2.4 mm/10 a under the scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, while the frequency of extreme precipitation events increased by 5%–7% and 6%–10%, respectively, particularly in the high-altitude mountains in central and southern regions. The signal-to-noise ratio of the predicted precipitation intensity and frequency in northeast CA to the north of the Tianshan Mountains is more reliable. Climate warming will have an obvious regulatory effect on the frequency of extreme precipitation events in CA. Under the scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, a temperature increase of 1 K increased the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events by approximately 7 and 9 days and the maximum continuous dry days by approximately 3 and 6 days, respectively.

     

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