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李琛, 吴进, 齐晨, 等. 2023. 冬奥延庆赛区索道极大风特征及预报[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(4): 398−408. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.22066
引用本文: 李琛, 吴进, 齐晨, 等. 2023. 冬奥延庆赛区索道极大风特征及预报[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(4): 398−408. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.22066
LI Chen, WU Jin, QI Chen, et al. 2023. Characteristics and Forecast of Ropeway Peak Gust in Yanqing during the Winter Olympics [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (4): 398−408. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.22066
Citation: LI Chen, WU Jin, QI Chen, et al. 2023. Characteristics and Forecast of Ropeway Peak Gust in Yanqing during the Winter Olympics [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (4): 398−408. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.22066

冬奥延庆赛区索道极大风特征及预报

Characteristics and Forecast of Ropeway Peak Gust in Yanqing during the Winter Olympics

  • 摘要: 索道的安全运行对2022北京冬奥会高山滑雪项目非常重要,而极端大风是影响索道运行的关键气象参数。2019年和2020年冬季,国家高山滑雪中心3条索道共10个支架的观测设备进行了持续的逐小时极大风观测。基于此数据,本文统计了索道极大风的特征:(1)索道极大风风速随海拔高度递增,不同索道的主要风向也各不相同;(2)当极大风风速达到一定阈值且风向与索道的夹角呈90°时,对索道造成影响的可能性最大,其中受影响概率最大达到48.9%;(3)影响索道的极大风风速大部分集中在12~20 m/s区间,风向大部分与索道夹角为45°或90°。通过Lamb-Jenkinson分型法将延庆地区天气类型分为6类,其中北风型下较低海拔的F索道和B1索道易受影响,东—东南—东北风型下高海拔的C索道易受影响。采用机器学习算法建立索道极大风风速预报模型,对比后发现C8索道支架的模拟效果最佳,准确率达到62.1 %,平均绝对误差为2.2 m/s,且对大于12 m/s的超阈值大风的预报准确率达到84%。本研究可为高山滑雪中心索道极大风预报提供支撑,也可在后冬奥时期为雪场的索道安全运行决策提供科学基础。

     

    Abstract: The safe operation of the ropeway was necessary for the Alpine skiing event during the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, and the peak gust was the key meteorological parameter that can affect the ropeway operation. In the winter 2019 and winter 2020, continuous observations of hourly peak gust at ten brackets of three ropeways in National Alpine Skiing Center were recorded using appropriate equipment. The obtained data showed the following characteristics of peak gust: (1) The ropeway peak gust increased with increasing altitude, and the directions of the primary peak gust of different ropeways varied. (2) When the peak gust speed reached a certain threshold and the included angle between the wind direction and the ropeway was 90°, the ropeways were affected with a maximum probability of 48.9%. (3) The peak gust speed affecting the ropeway was mainly concentrated in the 12–20 m/s range, and the included angle between the wind direction and the ropeway was 45° or 90°. Using the Lamb–Jenkinson classification method, the weather in Yanqing was classified into six categories, with F ropeway and B1 ropeway at lower altitudes mainly affected by weather type N and ropeway C at a high altitude mainly affected by weather type E–SE–NE. The forecast models for ropeway peak gust were established using a machine learning algorithm, and the results for ropeway bracket C8 were the most accurate: a forecast accuracy of up to 62.1%, mean absolute error of 2.2 m/s, and suprathreshold (>12 m/s) forecast accuracy of up to 84%. This research supported the forecast of ropeway peak gust at the National Alpine Ski Center and provided a scientific foundation for the safe operation of ropeways in ski resorts during the post–Winter Olympics period.

     

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