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余清波, 曹丽娟, 李珍, 等. 2023. 1909~2021年长春市极端气温多尺度变化特征及其与大尺度气候指数的关系[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(4): 437−449. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.22115
引用本文: 余清波, 曹丽娟, 李珍, 等. 2023. 1909~2021年长春市极端气温多尺度变化特征及其与大尺度气候指数的关系[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(4): 437−449. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.22115
YU Qingbo, CAO Lijuan, LI Zhen, et al. 2023. Multi-scale Temporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Temperature in Changchun during 1909−2021 and Its Relationship with Large-Scale Climate Indices [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (4): 437−449. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.22115
Citation: YU Qingbo, CAO Lijuan, LI Zhen, et al. 2023. Multi-scale Temporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Temperature in Changchun during 1909−2021 and Its Relationship with Large-Scale Climate Indices [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (4): 437−449. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.22115

1909~2021年长春市极端气温多尺度变化特征及其与大尺度气候指数的关系

Multi-scale Temporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Temperature in Changchun during 1909−2021 and Its Relationship with Large-Scale Climate Indices

  • 摘要: 基于1909~2021年长春市均一化逐日最高气温、最低气温资料,评估了百年来长春市气温增暖特征并量化了城市化影响的贡献率,揭示了关键极端气温指数的多尺度变化特征,并探讨不同尺度上极端气温指数与太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO)和大西洋年代际振荡(Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO)的关系。结果表明:1909~2021年长春市年平均气温增暖速率为2.93℃/100 a,1909~2015年间城市化影响的贡献率为56.22%。暖指数(夏日日数SU25、暖昼日数TX90p、暖夜日数TN90p、暖日持续日数WSDI)在波动中呈上升趋势,而冷指数(霜冻日数FD0、冷日日数TX10p、冷夜日数TN10p、冷日持续日数CSDI)则呈显著减少趋势。准3年为主的年际震荡、35年为主的年代际震荡和105年为主的多年代际震荡在多个气温指数演变过程中占据主导地位。多数极端气温指数的变化由反映年际变化的前两个固有模态函数和反映长期趋势的残余分量所决定。在年际和多年代际尺度上,暖指数的变化多与同期AMO指数呈显著正相关,同相位变化特征显著,但与PDO指数呈负相关;冷指数则与之相反。

     

    Abstract: Based on the homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature records during 1909−2021 in Changchun, the warming characteristics of temperature in Changchun over the recent 100 years were evaluated and the contribution rate of urbanization impact was quantified, the multi-scale variation characteristics of 16 extreme temperature indices were revealed, and then the relationship between extreme temperature indices on different scales and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was further discussed. The results showed that warm indices (SU25, TX90p, TN90p, and WSDI) showed upward trends in fluctuation; while cold indices (FD0, TX10p, TN10p, and CSDI) showed downward trends in fluctuation in recent 113 years. Trends of all indices were at 0.01 or 0.05 significance level, except for SU25, WSDI, and TX90p. The extreme temperature indices in Changchun revealed periodic changes at different scales, which are mainly determined by the first two intrinsic mode functions and the residual signal. Most extreme temperature indices have a 3-year or quasi-3-year main time scale revealing the interannual variations and a quasi-6-year time cycle dominating by decadal variations. Few indices are with significant longer time scales, such as quasi-31-year in SU25, reflecting the characteristics of multi-decadal variability. In the original signal and multi-decade variation, most warm indices (SU25, TX90p, TXx, and WSDI) were significantly negatively correlated with PDO in the same period but significantly positively correlated with AMO. It indicated there are obvious in-phase relationships between warm indices and AMO, revealing the significant modulating effect of AMO on interannual and multi-decade variations on extreme warm indices, but out-phase relationships between them and PDO. While, the situation is opposite for cold indices.

     

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