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曾安捷, 华维, 严中伟, 等. 2023. 基于深度学习的气象要素时空预报策略——直接预报和迭代预报的对比[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(5): 547−558. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.23011
引用本文: 曾安捷, 华维, 严中伟, 等. 2023. 基于深度学习的气象要素时空预报策略——直接预报和迭代预报的对比[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(5): 547−558. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.23011
ZENG Anjie, HUA Wei, YAN Zhongwei, et al. 2023. Comparison between Direct and Recursive Forecast Strategy Based on Deep Learning Method for Spatio-Temporal Meteorological Parameters Forecasting [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (5): 547−558. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.23011
Citation: ZENG Anjie, HUA Wei, YAN Zhongwei, et al. 2023. Comparison between Direct and Recursive Forecast Strategy Based on Deep Learning Method for Spatio-Temporal Meteorological Parameters Forecasting [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (5): 547−558. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.23011

基于深度学习的气象要素时空预报策略——直接预报和迭代预报的对比

Comparison between Direct and Recursive Forecast Strategy Based on Deep Learning Method for Spatio-Temporal Meteorological Parameters Forecasting

  • 摘要: 以大气垂直累积液态水含量的预报问题为例,使用UNet网络结构作为基础结构构建时空预报模型,对比了采用两类预报策略的模型的预报效果,预报策略包含一个迭代预报策略(Recursive Forecast Strategy, RFS)以及两个直接预报策略(Direct Forecast Strategies, DFSs)。研究结果表明,两个直接预报模型对整体预报时段的预报效果明显优于迭代预报模型,直接预报模型的RMSE比迭代预报模型低19%。随着预报时次的增加,迭代预报模型的预报误差累积速度比两个直接预报模型快。在两个直接预报模型中,多时次输出模型(Direct Forecast Model Multi-Steps, DFS-M)的预报表现更加稳健,在整体预报时段上预报效果优于单时次输出模型(Direct Forecast Model Single-Step, DFS-S),但DFS-S模型对几个前期时次的预报效果较好。本研究利用深度学习可解释性技术中的深度学习重要特征分析方法(Deep Learning Important FeaTures, DeepLIFT)分析DFS-M和DFS-S模型各个输入时次对于模型预报的相对重要性。研究结果表明,DFS-M和DFS-S模型80%的输入重要性都集中在最后两个输入时次上,较早期输入时次的重要性随着预报时次的增加而呈现上升趋势。由于各输出时次间存在一定的统计相关性,受输出时次相关性约束的DFS-M模型的输入时次重要性变化比DFS-S模型更加稳定。通过将DFS-M和DFS-S模型对于不同时次的预报进行结合,可以得到效果更加均衡的预报。本研究可以为基于深度学习的天气气候预报方法的选择提供新的思路。

     

    Abstract: For nowcasting models based on the Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) used in radar echo extrapolation, different strategies are commonly applied to forecasting the radar echo of future (usually within two hours) multiple time steps. In this work, using the nowcasting of the atmospheric vertical integrated liquid water content, the forecast performances of models with two types of strategies, namely Recursive Forecast Strategy (RFS) and Direct Forecast Strategies (DFSs), were compared. CNN-based models were constructed for spatiotemporal forecasting with the UNet architecture as the backbone. Results exhibited the significantly better performance of the two DFS models than the RFS model on the overall forecast horizon with a roughly 19% lower root-mean-square error. With increasing forecast time steps, the forecast estimation errors of the RFS model accumulated much faster than those of the two DFS models. For the DFS models, the multioutput DFS (DFS-M) was more robust and performed better than the single-output DFS (DFS-S) on the overall forecast horizon; for a short forecast horizon, DFS-S has a slightly better forecast (approximately the first two time steps in the future). Moreover, a neural network interpretation method (i.e., DeepLIFT) was applied to the two DFS models to find the relative importance of each input time step. It was revealed that for both DFS models, approximately 80% of the mean importance score was in the last two input time steps and early input time steps have an increasing impact on longer forecast times. The input importance of DFS-M at each output step was much more stable than that of DFS-S due to the self-constrain effect exerted by the stochastic dependencies between output steps. By combining the forecast of two direct models at different time steps, a more balanced forecast can be performed on the whole forecast horizon.

     

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