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LIU Changbo, JI Xiaoxiao, XU Yinlong, WANG Mingxing, ZHANG Lei, PAN Jie, HU Yanan, TONG Jinhe. Analysis of Changes in the Maximum and Minimum Temperature and Diurnal Temperature Range from PRECIS Model under the SRES A1B Scenario for China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2015, 20(1): 89-96. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2014.13190
Citation: LIU Changbo, JI Xiaoxiao, XU Yinlong, WANG Mingxing, ZHANG Lei, PAN Jie, HU Yanan, TONG Jinhe. Analysis of Changes in the Maximum and Minimum Temperature and Diurnal Temperature Range from PRECIS Model under the SRES A1B Scenario for China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2015, 20(1): 89-96. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2014.13190

Analysis of Changes in the Maximum and Minimum Temperature and Diurnal Temperature Range from PRECIS Model under the SRES A1B Scenario for China

  • The outputs of PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) were used to analyze the changes in the maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) during 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 relative to the baseline period (1961-1990) under the SRES A1B scenario for China. The results show a consistent increase in the Tmax and Tmin, annually and for the four seasons, during 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100; however, the DTR shows a consistent decrease. The annual warming amplitude (WA) of the Tmax and Tmin are 1.7, 3.2, and 3.9 and 1.9, 3.6, and 4.7 ℃, during 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, respectively, and the increase in the amplitude of the Tmin is more than 1.1 times that of the Tmax. The WA of the Tmax and Tmin are projected to be largest in winter and smallest in spring, and the decreasing amplitude of the DTR is projected to be largest in winter and smallest in summer. The spatial distribution of the change of the Tmax, Tmin, and DTR over China shows that the Tmax will have its largest WA in Northeast China, a large WA in Northwest China, the Loess Plateau, and the Sichuan Basin, but a small WA in the northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and South China. On the contrary, the Tmin will have its largest WA in Northwest China, a large WA in Northeast China and the Northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and a small WA in the Sichuan Basin and the eastern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. The DTR shows a decreased trend for northern China, especially in the northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, but an increase in the Sichuan Basin and the eastern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.
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