Possible External Forcing Factors for the Interdecadal Change in the East Asian Winter Monsoon around the Late 1990s

In this study, the authors investigate the effects of anomalous sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice, and snow cover in the interdecadal change in the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) that occurred around the late 1990s by using reanalysis datasets from NCEP/NCAR, the Met Office Hadley Centre, the NOAA Climate Diagnostic Center, and the Northern Hemisphere snow cover reanalysis product from NOAA. Characteristics of and mechanisms for the interdecadal changes in the EAWM that occurred around mid-1980s (1976-1988) and late 1990s (1999-2012) are also compared. Results indicate that the interdecadal change in the EAWM that occurred around mid-1980s is characterized by negative temperature anomalies over the entire areas of China. The interdecadal change in the EAWM that occurred around mid-1980s is not related to external forcing including SST and sea ice anomalies. Instead, it is attributed to internal atmospheric dynamics. However, the interdecadal change in the EAWM that occurred around the late 1990s may be attributed to external forcing of SST, sea ice and snow cover anomalies in the preceding fall and winter. Particularly, the warmer SST in the late 1990s over the North Atlantic triggered an atmospheric wave train that propagated eastward and reached East Asia. This wave train intensified Siberian high, leading to a stronger EAWM and negative temperature anomalies over northern East Asia. The reduced sea ice anomalies in the Arctic Ocean and the increased snow cover over the Eurasian Continent in the preceding autumn is also a possible reason for the interdecadal change in the EAWM occurred around the late 1990s. In addition, positive SST anomalies over the tropical western Pacific can lead to convergence and enhanced convection over the maritime continent. As a result, cyclonic circulation anomalies over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean developed via a Gill type response. The anomalous southerly winds to the east of the cyclone eventually led to positive temperature anomalies over southern East Asia.