China’s Carbon Emissions in International Trade under Tariff Adjustments

To adapt to climate change, China, as the country creating the highest levels of carbon emissions in the world, is formulating a carbon emission reduction plan. The plan under development considers many aspects of emission generation and proposes a goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. With the ever-increasing globalization of trade, the carbon emissions produced locally in China are increasingly impacting other countries worldwide. Thus, the carbon policies negotiated as terms of trade between countries can greatly impact worldwide carbon emission levels. Similarly, setting the level of tariffs based on emission levels will bring about significant changes in the international trade for goods. Consequently, this will likely lead to changes in the treatment of emissions in import and export agreements. This article examines the trade conflicts between China and the United States. In doing so, it simulates the additional tariffs imposed by China and the United States and combines the results of the global trade analysis model and the input–output analysis method. It concludes by quantitatively analyzing the changes in China’s hidden import and export emissions under the proposed tariff changes. The article finds that after China and the United States have hypothetically imposed tariffs, although the trade between China and the United States and the emissions thereof would be greatly reduced, the emissions of China’s exports to the world nonetheless would have significantly increased. In addition, due to the impact of the import market, China’s emissions from imports worldwide would have been significantly reduced, which would lead to an increase in China’s net exports of carbon emissions after tariffs. These exports would be concentrated in energy-intensive industries. Based on a review of the current results, China continues to export a significant amount of emissions to the world despite applicable trade restrictions. Promoting the progress of the new energy industry through trade may more efficiently solve the problem of carbon emission reduction.