An Ensemble Projection of Extreme Climate Events and Related Risk Exposures in the 21st Century in the Yangtze River Economic Zone Using High-Resolution (6.25 km) Downscaling Datasets

The 6.25 km high-resolution downscaling projection datasets under the RCP4.5 scenario based on a combined dynamical and statistical downscaling method are used to evaluate and project the future extreme climatic events and the associated risks in the Yangtze River Economic Zone (YREZ). The results show that the datasets can well reproduce the spatial distribution of all temperature extremes and most precipitation extremes, providing a reliable forecasting capability. However, Slightly larger deviations in some extreme precipitation indices The heat events will increase, while the cold events will decrease substantially in the YREZ. Extreme precipitation is projected to increase in the lower and eastern middle reaches and decrease in the east and south upper reaches. The gross domestic product (GDP) exposure to heat events and heavy rainfall showed an increasing trend in the 21st century in YREZ, most significantly in the lower reaches. Meanwhile, population exposure increased and then decreased in the 21st century. The contribution of the distribution factor and the non-linear factor are equally important for GDP exposure to high events, while the distribution factor having a greater impact in population exposure. The GDP/population exposure to heavy rainfall mainly depends on its distribution factor.