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云南地区春季风能资源年代际变化特征及原因初探

Characteristics and Preliminary Causes of the Interdecadal Variation of Spring Wind Energy Resources in Yunnan

  • 摘要: 基于1979~2020年云南省125个气象站逐日风速资料,外推计算出现行平均风机轮毂高度处(70 m)的风速及风功率密度(Wind Power Density, WPD),并对两者在云南地区的时空变化特征及可能影响因素进行了分析研究。结果表明:云南地区距地表70 m高度处的风速及WPD的年及季节平均空间分布大致以哀牢山-高黎贡山为分界线,在分界线以东为风速和WPD大值区,分界线以西为风速和WPD的小值区。风速、WPD在春季最大,该季节部分站点的WPD可达100 W m-2以上。研究时段内,云南绝大部分台站春季WPD呈明显减小趋势,其中滇中地区的减小幅度尤为显著。对春季WPD进行经验正交函数分解(EOF),其第一模态空间分布呈现全省一致变化型,相应的时间序列则在1999年前后存在由强变弱的年代际转变特征。统计分析显示WPD的年代际减弱可能与青藏高原整层大气热源的年代际冷却有关。1999年以后,青藏高原上空因大气热源冷却导致青藏高原及其周边区域出现差值高压异常及对应的异常反气旋式环流,其覆盖区域包括云南、华南地区。同时孟加拉湾-印度半岛上空为异常气旋式环流控制。以上环流异常协同造成云南地区春季气候态的西南风减弱,进而导致WPD年代际转变特征的出现。

     

    Abstract: Based on daily wind speed data from 125 meteorological stations in Yunnan Province for 1979–2020 and calculated wind power density (WPD) at 70 m, this study analyzes the temporal and spatial variations in near-surface wind speed and wind energy. The results show that the annual and seasonal average spatial distributions of wind speed and WPD at 70 m roughly align with the Ailao and Gaoligong Mountains as boundaries. The larger wind speed and WPD area is located to the east of the dividing line, while the smaller district is located to the west of this line. Springtime exhibits the highest wind speeds and WPD values, and at some locations, the WPD can even approach 100 W m−2. The WPD of most stations in Yunnan has exhibited a considerable decreasing trend over the past 42 years in spring, especially in central Yunnan. The first mode of empirical orthogonal decomposition (EOF) of WPD in spring showed a consistent change in the entire area, with a substantial interdecadal variation from strong to weak around 1999. This interdecadal weakening of WPD may be related to the decadal cooling of the atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau in China after 1999, which caused considerable pressure anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings. It also resulted in an anomalous anticyclonic circulation across the Yunnan region and South China, as well as an anomalous cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Peninsula. The climatological southwest wind was weakened by these anomalies, ultimately leading to interdecadal variation in WPD.

     

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