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东北春玉米低温冷害与东北冷涡的联系及其对产量的影响

Correlation between Spring Maize Cold Damage and Northeast Cold Vortex in Northeast China

  • 摘要: 基于1981~2021年的气象资料、东北冷涡数据及其玉米产量资料,定义了冷涡型玉米低温冷害,研究其与东北冷涡的关联特征及影响。结果表明:东北地区春玉米延迟型低温冷害主要由东北冷涡主导,低温冷害年对应东北冷涡更多发生在夏季。玉米冷涡型低温冷害年对应1、2类活动路径的东北冷涡偏多,合成的环流异常进一步说明1类路径东北冷涡向东南移动发展,东北中南部降温幅度较大,2类路径对应的东北冷涡活动区域偏北,导致东北地区产生大幅降温。通过分析两类路径典型年玉米产量情况,发现1类路径的东北冷涡会导致东北南部减产,2类路径对东三省均有影响,北部区域较为显著。该研究将加深对东北冷涡及其气候效应对农业生产影响的理解,为利用大尺度大气环流对作物产量预测提供依据。

     

    Abstract: Based on meteorological data from 1981 to 2021, Northeast cold vortex (NCV) records, and spring maize yield data, this study defines a novel type of agricultural hazard-NCV-induced delayed cold damage (NCVCD) to spring maize and investigates their correlation with NCV and their related impacts. The results show that NCVCD in Northeast China is primarily caused by the NCV. In years with NCVCD, the NCV tended to occur more frequently in summer, with Type 1 and Type 2 NCV paths more prevalent. The composite circulation anomalies further demonstrated that the NCV of Type 1 and Type 2 paths would lead to substantial temperature drops in the southern and northern parts of Northeast China, respectively. Yield assessments in representative NCVCD years show that the NCV of the Type 1 path results in yield reduction in the southern part of Northeast China, whereas the impact region of the Type 2 path is more widespread. This study deepens the understanding of NCV and its climatic effects on agricultural production and provides a basis for predicting crop yield using large-scale atmospheric circulation.

     

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