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基于统计方法与智能算法的广西夏季降水变权组合预测模型

Variable-Weight Combination Prediction Model for Summer Precipitation in Guangxi Based on Statistical Methods and Intelligent Algorithms

  • 摘要: 为进一步提高广西夏季降水预测准确率,基于广西气候中心提供的广西88个站1961~2022年的夏季(6~8月)降水和国家气候中心提供的142项环流特征量和海温指数等资料,运用相关性分析法筛选出高相关因子,并基于高相关因子分别对广西夏季降水量采用多元线性回归、随机森林、BP神经网络方法建立其单项预测模型,在此基础上使用方差倒数法建立多元变权组合预测模型,最后利用3个单项模型和多元变权组合模型分别对1961~2017年广西夏季降水进行拟合和对2018~2022年广西夏季降水进行预测。结果表明,多元变权组合模型的拟合和预测结果总体优于单个预测模型。对广西88个站1961~2017年的夏季降水距平序列进行经验正交函数(Empirical Orthogonal Function, EOF)展开,采用EOF分析得到前三个模态对应的时间序列的变权组合预测来验证变权组合模型的效果,结果也印证了单序列预测的结论,2018~2022年广西88站夏季降水变权组合预测的趋势异常综合评分Ps评分平均为88.8分,每年的Ps评分均超过80分,且明显优于其他模型,预测性能较其他单个模型稳定,这为广西夏季降水预测及组合预测模型的构建提供了一种新的思路。

     

    Abstract: Summer (June–August) precipitation data from 88 meteorological stations in Guangxi spanning 1961–2022 were utilized, provided by the Guangxi Climate Center, along with 142 circulation characteristic indices and regionally sea-surface temperature (SST) indices from the National Climate Center of China. Key predictors were selected via correlation analysis. Using these factors, individual prediction models for summer precipitation in Guangxi were constructed using multiple linear regression, random forest, and Back Propagation (BP) neural networks. Subsequently, these were integrated into a variable-weight combination model by using the variance reciprocal weighting method. The model on data from 1961 to 2017 were trained and their forecasts for the period 2018–2022 were evaluated. The results show that the variable-weight combination model consistently outperformed each model in fitting and predictive accuracy. To further validate the effectiveness of the combined approach, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied to the summer precipitation anomaly series from 1961 to 2017 across the 88 stations. The variable-weight combination predictions were also evaluated on the time series corresponding to the first three EOF modes. The results corroborated the conclusions drawn from single-station predictions: the average comprehensive score for the trend anomaly Prediction skill (Ps) of the variable-weight combination predictions across the 88 stations during 2018–2022 reached 88.8 points, with annual Ps scores consistently exceeding 80, indicating significantly better and more stable performance compared with all three individual models. This study provides a new approach for summer precipitation prediction in Guangxi and the development of combined prediction models.

     

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