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“23·7”华北持续性特大暴雨过程不同阶段的水汽来源与中尺度对流系统(MCS)演变特征

Moisture Transport and Mesoscale Convective System Evolution During the “23.7” Persistent Extreme Rainfall Event in North China

  • 摘要: 2023年7月28日至8月2日,我国华北地区遭遇了罕见特大暴雨过程,本文分析了此次特大暴雨过程中不同阶段的水汽来源和中尺度对流系统演变特征,依据降水落区变化特点和主要影响系统,将此次特大暴雨过程分为3个阶段进行分析。第一阶段降水中心主要位于河南北部、河北西南部至中部和北京南部的山地边界位置,水汽主要来源于西太平洋和南海,主要影响系统为台风“杜苏芮”登陆北上减弱后的低涡,低涡北移背景下,有多个中尺度对流系统(MCS)发生发展影响该阶段的降水。低涡于7月28日18:00(协调世界时,下同)开始影响河南北部并导致该地区降水形成,7月30日12:00在山西西南部消亡;第二阶段降水对流性强,局地雨强最大,降水中心主要位于河北中北部、北京南部、天津北部。此阶段中,台风“卡奴”北上移动至东海中部,水汽主要源自西太平洋,主导影响系统为暖式切变线,MCS呈东西向发展;第三阶段的降水量为3个阶段最小,降水中心主要位于北京东北部和天津西北部,主要影响系统为偏南风急流,水汽主要源自西北太平洋和福建南部洋面,此阶段的MCS空间尺度和强度变化较快,造成的主要是局地性强降水。

     

    Abstract: From 28 July to 2 August, 2023, North China experienced a rare and persistent extreme rainfall event. In this study, we analyze moisture sources and the development of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) across three stages, defined by the spatial progression of rainfall and the prevailing mesoscale environment. In Stage one, rainfall centers were located over northern Henan, southwestern–central Hebei, and the mountainous fringes south of Beijing. Moisture mainly originated from the western North Pacific and the South China Sea, while a weakening post-landfall vortex of Typhoon Doksuri directed multiple MCSs into the region. The vortex began affecting northern Henan at 1800 UTC on July 28 and dissipated over southwestern Shanxi at 1200 UTC 30 July. In Stage two, convection intensified, producing peak local rainfall, and rainfall centers shifted to central–northern Hebei, southern Beijing, and northern Tianjin. Typhoon Khanun moved northward into the central East China Sea, supplying moisture from the western North Pacific. A warm-type shear line with easterly winds favored east–west oriented MCS development. In Stage three, total rainfall decreased, with centers over northeastern Beijing and northwestern Tianjin. A southerly low-level jet dominated, transporting moisture from the northwestern Pacific and the offshore region south of Fujian. MCSs evolved rapidly in scale and intensity, leading to localized heavy rainfall.

     

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