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1893~2023年厦门降水长期变化特征及极端降水事件分析

Long-Term Variation Characteristics of Precipitation and Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Events in Xiamen during 1893−2023

  • 摘要: 利用厦门1893~2023年历史日降水记录,了解降水的长期变化及极端天气事件的影响。数据来源于福建省气象局的印刷记录和现代仪器观测结果,经过数字化处理和验证以确保准确性。对百年数据集的分析显示,年降水量存在显著变化,1930年代和1980年代之后的峰值尤为显著,年降水量和降水日数总体呈现出增长趋势。季节性分析表明,春季和夏季对年降水量的贡献最大,夏季和秋季降水量呈现出明显的增长趋势。尽管观测到增长,但Mann-Kendall趋势检验表明,年降水量无统计显著的长期趋势,表明自然变率在其中起主要作用。极端降水事件的频率表现出显著波动,自1960年代以来显著增加,反映出气候变化的日益影响。这些观察到的事实可为改进业务天气预报和深入理解区域气候变化机制提供参考依据。

     

    Abstract: Based on historical daily precipitation records during 1893−2023, long-term variation characteristics of the precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Xiamen were investigated. The dataset, derived from the Fujian Provincial Meteorological Bureau’s printed archives and modern instrumental observations, was digitized and validated to ensure accuracy. Analysis of this century-long dataset reveals notable interdecadal fluctuations in annual precipitation, with pronounced peaks during the 1930s and the 1980s. Annual precipitation totals and the number of rainy days show an overall upward trend. Seasonal analysis indicates that spring and summer contribute most to the annual total, with significant increases also observed in summer and autumn. Despite these increases, the Mann-Kendall trend test suggests no statistically significant long-term trend in annual precipitation, highlighting the dominant role of natural variability. The frequency of extreme rainfall events shows substantial interdecadal variation and has risen markedly since the 1960s, reflecting the growing influence of climate change. These findings provide valuable insights for improving operational weather forecasting and enhancing our understanding of regional climate change mechanisms.

     

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