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台风“摩羯”(202411)与“威马逊”(201409)对滇东南降水影响的对比分析

Comparative Analysis of the Effects of Typhoon Yagi (202411) and Typhoon Rammasun (201409) on Precipitation in Southeastern Yunnan

  • 摘要: 本文利用自动站观测资料、全球分析资料FNL(Final Operational Global Analysis)、新一代天气雷达及中国气象局气象信息综合处理系统(MICAPS)数据等多源观测信息,分析研究了西行台风“摩羯”和“威马逊”对滇东南影响的差异特征,以期为台风预报预警和灾害风险评估提供可靠的科学依据。结果表明:两个西行台风前期移动路径、登陆地点、强度都极为相似,后期由于副热带高压位置及各物理量场不同导致路径出现较大偏差,强度也不尽相同,位置偏南的“摩羯”外围云系造成的降雨强度更大,日降雨量和累计降水均突破了历史极值。结果还显示,两次降水过程在孟加拉湾地区均有热带低压维持,均有来自孟加拉湾及南海的两股水汽通道不断输送水汽,两次台风过程都没有明显短时强降水及大风等强对流天气。而后期“摩羯”台风强度强于“威马逊”、路径更偏南、移动速度更缓慢,两个台风水汽通量辐合、假相当位温θse及垂直上升运动大值区分布一致,但“摩羯”强度更强,维持时间也更长,导致“摩羯”残涡的维持时间比“威马逊”长、降雨强度更大。

     

    Abstract: This study uses multi-source observational information—such as data from automatic station observation, final operational global analysis, advanced weather radar, and the China Meteorological Administration Meteorological Information Processing System—to analyze the varying effects of westward-moving typhoons Yagi and Rammasun on precipitation in southeastern Yunnan. The study aimed to provide a reliable scientific foundation for typhoon forecasting, warnings, and disaster risk assessments. The results showed that early movement paths, landing points, and intensities of both typhoons were remarkably similar. However, later in their trajectories, differences emerged due to the varying positions of the subtropical high and other physical factors, resulting in significant deviations in paths and intensities. The rainfall associated with the southern peripheral cloud system of Typhoon Yagi was more intense, with both daily and cumulative precipitation exceeding historical extremes. In addition, both precipitation events were sustained by tropical depressions in the Bay of Bengal, with continuous water vapor transport from both the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea. Notably, no significant short-term heavy rainfall events or strong convective weather, such as strong winds, were observed during either typhoon event. In the later stages, Typhoon Yagi exhibited greater intensity, followed a more southerly path, and moved more slowly than Typhoon Rammasun. The convergence of wind and air fluxes, the distribution of pseudo-phase equivalent temperature (θse), and the distribution of high values of vertical upward motion were similar for both typhoons. However, Typhoon Yagi had a stronger intensity and longer duration, leading to a prolonged and more intense rainfall period from its residual vortex compared to that of Typhoon Rammasun.

     

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