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哥伦比亚北部近海风速高分辨率模拟预测

High-Resolution Modeling and Predictability of Near-Surface Wind Speed in the Offshore Areas of Northern Colombia

  • 摘要: 基于WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)模式,构建了高分辨率的风速模拟系统。通过对Yonsei University(YSU)、Mellor-Yamada-Janjic(MYJ)和Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination(QNSE)3种边界层参数化方案进行敏感性试验,确定了YSU方案在该区域的优越性,并采用多层嵌套的方式实现了3 km级别的高分辨率风速模拟。结果表明,WRF降尺度后风速模拟精度显著提升,尤其对极端天气事件如飓风“Julia”的模拟较好。本研究可为哥伦比亚海上风电项目的选址、运行调度和风险管理提供科学依据,同时为类似复杂地形和海洋环境区域的风速模拟提供参考。

     

    Abstract: A high-resolution simulation system using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model was developed by conducting sensitivity experiments with three boundary-layer parameterization schemes, namely, Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ), and quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE), to identify the optimal configuration. The YSU scheme demonstrated superior performance in capturing region-specific wind patterns, enabling a 3-km-resolution simulation via multilayer nesting. Results indicate a substantial improvement in the determination accuracy of WRF-downscaled wind speeds, particularly during extreme events exemplified by Hurricane Julia’s wind structure replication. These outcomes provide critical scientific support for offshore wind project siting, grid dispatch optimization, and risk mitigation strategies in northern Colombia while establishing a transferable methodology for wind-resource assessment in complex coastal environments globally.

     

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