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CAS-ESM 1.0模式中盛夏平流层风场异常的统计动力诊断及对平流层准两年振荡的模拟评估

Statistical-Dynamic Diagnosis of Midsummer Stratospheric Wind Anomalies and the Evaluation of Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Simulation in CAS-ESM 1.0 Model

  • 摘要: 为考察评估地球系统模式CAS-ESM 1.0对平流层准两年振荡(Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, QBO)模拟的效果和能力,利用该模式模拟的赤道太平洋上空平流层共84年的盛夏即7月风场资料,对其中的风场异常作了统计动力诊断即复经验正交函数分解,并与实况(NCAR/NCEP资料的结果)做比较,结果发现:该分解的第一、二模态方差贡献分别为21.5%、15.5%,前2个模态累积方差贡献为37.0%。第一模态的时间系数具有2.4、2.9、3.5、4.1、4.9年的明显年际变化周期,其中前两个周期与QBO的周期有很好的对应,后3个则包含在El Niño-南方涛动(ENSO)的周期中。此外,还有非常明显的11.6年的年代际变化周期。第一模态空间场上的平流层中部、中高部和高部,尤其是10°S~15°S太平洋范围上空明显的风场异常都是向上增强的偏东风,并大致呈现正压Kelvin波的特点。第二模态的时间系数具有3.5、4.1、4.9年明显的年际变化周期,其中4.1年最显著,这些周期也都在ENSO年际变化周期内。与第一模态相同,也有11.6年的年代际变化。第二模态空间场上,平流层赤道太平洋的风场异常均有较明显的经向风和越赤道气流;这些与实况相比存在差距,且未体现斜压Kelvin波,该模态主要反映了ENSO在平流层的表现。评估表明,该模式第一模态能体现QBO和大致呈现平流层的正压Kelvin波,第二模态则体现了ENSO的影响,这或许与该模式垂直分辨率尚不够、相应物理过程还不够完善,以及过于重视ENSO模拟效果的调试有关。今后要对该有关方面做进一步改善,以便使该模式更加优化和完备。

     

    Abstract: To evaluate the performance of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model version 1.0 in simulating the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), this study uses 84 years of simulated July wind field data over the equatorial Pacific stratosphere. A statistical–dynamical diagnosis, namely, Complex Empirical Orthogonal Function(CEOF)analysis, is applied to the wind field anomalies, and the results were compared with observations from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis. The findings reveal that the first and second modes account for 21.5% and 15.5% of the variance, respectively, for a cumulative contribution of 37.0%. The principal component of the first mode exhibits notable interannual variation periods of 2.4, 2.9, 3.5, 4.1, and 4.9 years. The first two periods correspond closely to the QBO cycle, whereas the latter three align with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)period. In addition, a pronounced decadal variation with a period of 11.6 years is observed. In the mid, upper-mid, and high levels of the first-mode spatial field in the stratosphere, particularly over the 10°S–15°S Pacific region, pronounced easterly wind anomalies are observed, strengthening upward and generally exhibiting characteristics of an equivalent-barotropic Kelvin wave. The principal component of the second mode shows notable interannual variation periods of 3.5, 4.1, and 4.9 years, with the 4.1-year period being the most prominent. These periods also lie within the interannual variability range of ENSO. Similar to the first mode, an 11.6-year decadal variation is present. In the spatial pattern of the second mode, notable meridional wind and cross-equatorial flow anomalies are observed over the equatorial Pacific stratosphere. However, these features differ from the observations and do not display the characteristics of a baroclinic Kelvin wave. This mode primarily reflects the stratospheric signature of ENSO. The evaluation indicates that the first mode of the model can represent QBO and generally captures the barotropic Kelvin wave in the stratosphere, whereas the second mode reflects the influence of ENSO. These discrepancies may result from the insufficient vertical resolution of the model, imperfect representation of physical processes, and overemphasis on tuning for ENSO simulation. Future improvements in these areas are necessary to optimize the model’s performance.

     

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