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IAP-DCPv3.5气候预测系统的构建及其性能评估

Development of IAP-DCPv3.5 climate prediction system and its performance evaluation

  • 摘要: 季风区降水的季节预测是防灾减灾的迫切需求,也是气候预测的难点和热点。本研究基于第二代中国科学院地球系统模式(CAS-ESM2.0)的陆气耦合模式分量,发展了与CoLM陆面模式相适应的陆面初始化方案,并引入基于逐步回归的降水预测误差订正方法,构建了IAP-DCPv3.5动力气候预测系统。基于预测系统1991~2020年总共30年的集合回报试验结果,评估了该系统对中国夏季降水异常的季节预测技巧,结果表明IAP-DCPv3.5对中国东部夏季降水异常总体具有良好的预测效果,误差订正方法可显著提升系统对夏季降水的预测技巧。比较不同超前时间的夏季降水预测技巧可以发现,汛期会商所需要的3月份起报的夏季降水预测技巧与5月起报的预测技巧基本相当。针对夏季风环流的预测技巧评估表明,IAP-DCPv3.5对东亚夏季风指数具有较好的预测技巧,且可以刻画出东亚夏季风年际变化与中国东部降水异常之间的关系,表明东亚夏季风预测技巧可显著影响中国夏季降水的预测能力。针对2023年汛期降水的实时预测及检验发现,虽然在幅值上与观测相比有所偏差,IAP-DCPv3.5对2023年夏季中国区域降水异常的空间分布特征具有较好的预测能力。本研究表明IAP-DCPv3.5可直接服务于我国汛期降水的实时预测,而基于该预测系统的预测检验还可为CAS-ESM2.0的进一步改进与完善提供重要科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Skillful Seasonal prediction of summer precipitation in monsoon regions is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation, and it is also a difficult and hot spot in climate prediction. In this study, we developed the IAP-DCPv3.5(Institute of Atmospheric Physics dynamical climate prediction system version 3.5) dynamical climate prediction system based on the land-atmosphere coupled model component of the second-generation Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model (CAS-ESM2.0). Specifically, we designed a land surface initialization scheme compatible for Common Land Model (CoLM) and incorporated a stepwise regression-based bias correction method for precipitation prediction. Utilizing a 30-year ensemble hindcast experiment results from 1991 to 2020, we evaluated the system"s seasonal prediction skill for summer precipitation anomalies over China. The results demonstrate that IAP-DCPv3.5 exhibits reasonable predictive capability for summer precipitation anomalies in eastern China, with the bias correction method significantly improve the system"s prediction skills for summer precipitation. Comparation of prediction skills with different lead-time suggests that, the prediction skill for summer precipitation initialized in March is generally comparable to that initialized in May. Evaluation of prediction skills for summer monsoon circulation shows that IAP-DCPv3.5 can successfully predict the interannual variation of East Asian Summer Monsoon Index and reasonably reproduce the relationship between monsoon activity and precipitation anomalies in eastern China, indicating that the East Asian summer monsoon prediction skill can significantly affect the predictive ability of summer precipitation in China. Real-time prediction and validation for 2023 summer precipitation further demonstrate that IAP-DCPv3.5’s capability in predicting the observed spatial distribution of summer precipitation anomalies over China, despite discrepancies in the amplitude of predicted rainfall anomalies can be found. This study implies that IAP-DCPv3.5 could be directly applied for the real-time flood season prediction in China, and the prediction validation based on this prediction system can also provide important scientific basis for the further improvement of CAS-ESM2.0.

     

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