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IAP-DCPv3.5气候预测系统的构建及其性能评估

Development and Performance Evaluation of IAP-DCPv3.5 Climate Prediction System

  • 摘要: 基于第二代中国科学院地球系统模式(CAS-ESM2.0)的陆气耦合模式分量,发展了与CoLM陆面模式相适应的陆面初始化方案,并引入基于逐步回归的降水预测误差订正方法,构建了IAP-DCPv3.5动力气候预测系统。基于预测系统1991~2020年总共30年的集合回报试验结果,评估了该系统对中国夏季降水异常的季节预测技巧。结果表明,IAP-DCPv3.5对中国东部夏季降水异常总体具有良好的预测效果,误差订正方法可显著提升系统对夏季降水的预测技巧。比较不同超前时间的夏季降水预测技巧可以发现,汛期会商所需要的3月起报的夏季降水预测技巧与5月起报的预测技巧基本相当。针对夏季风环流的预测技巧评估表明,IAP-DCPv3.5对东亚夏季风指数预测具有较高的技巧,且可以刻画出东亚夏季风年际变化与中国东部降水异常之间的关系,表明东亚夏季风预测技巧可显著影响中国夏季降水的预测能力。针对2023年汛期降水的实时预测及检验发现,虽然在幅值上与观测相比有所偏差,但IAP-DCPv3.5对2023年夏季中国区域降水异常的空间分布特征具有较好的预测能力。本研究表明,IAP-DCPv3.5可直接服务于我国汛期降水的实时预测,而基于该预测系统的预测检验还可为CAS-ESM2.0的进一步改进与完善提供重要科学依据。

     

    Abstract: The Institute of Atmospheric Physics Dynamical Climate Prediction System version 3.5 (IAP-DCPv3.5) was developed in this study based on the land–atmosphere coupled model component of the second-generation Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model (CAS-ESM2.0). Specifically, we designed a land surface initialization scheme compatible with the Common Land Model and incorporated a stepwise regression-based bias correction method for precipitation prediction. Using 30-year ensemble hindcast experiment results from 1991 to 2020, we evaluated the system’s seasonal prediction skill for summer precipitation anomalies in China. Results demonstrated that IAP-DCPv3.5 exhibited reasonable predictive capability in eastern China, and the bias correction method significantly improved the system's prediction skills for summer precipitation. A comparison of prediction capabilities with different lead times suggested that the prediction skill for summer precipitation initialized in March was generally comparable to that initialization in May. An evaluation of prediction skills for summer monsoon circulation revealed that IAP-DCPv3.5 successfully predicted the interannual variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Index and reasonably reproduced the relationship between monsoon activity and precipitation anomalies in eastern China, indicating that its predictability for East Asian summer monsoon significantly affected its predictions of summer precipitation in China. Real-time prediction and validation of 2023 summer precipitation further demonstrated the system’s capability of predicting the observed spatial distribution of summer precipitation anomalies in China, despite discrepancies in the amplitude of predicted rainfall anomalies. This study highlights that IAP-DCPv3.5 can be directly applied for real-time summer rainfall prediction in China, and the validation of this system provides an important scientific evidence for further improving CAS-ESM2.0.

     

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