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盛夏欧亚大陆天气尺度波动与中国东部降水的年际协同变化及机制

Interannual Covariation of Midsummer Eurasia Synoptic-scale Waves and Eastern China Rainfall and the Influencing Mechanisms

  • 摘要: 基于台站资料、ERA5再分析数据和NSIDC海冰数据,本研究采用带通滤波、奇异值分解(Singular Value Decomposition, SVD)分解、EOF分析等方法探讨了盛夏(7~8月)欧亚大陆天气尺度波动与中国东部降水在年际尺度的协同变化特征及机制。研究表明,在西西伯利亚天气尺度波动强年,中国东部降水呈现“偶极”型空间分布,长江以北降水偏少、以南降水偏多;在天气尺度波动弱年,中国东部降水呈现“三极”型空间分布,对应华南和华北降水偏多,而长江流域降水偏少。进一步的研究表明,天气尺度波动活跃年份,东北亚高压脊增强,其东侧异常东北风抑制东亚夏季风的强度,导致偶极型降水分布;天气尺度波动偏弱年份,对应西太平洋副热带高压西伸北进,形成三极型降水分布。北极海冰是7~8月欧亚大陆天气尺度波动强度变化的主要影响因子。喀拉海至巴伦支海东部海冰偏少(偏多),增强(减弱)欧亚大陆中部地区经向温度梯度,西西伯利亚地区大气斜压性增强(减弱),天气尺度波活动增强(减弱)。此外,急流轴北部西西伯利亚西风增强,也有利于上游天气尺度波动向下游传播,增强西西伯利亚地区的天气尺度波动活动。

     

    Abstract: The covariation characteristics and mechanisms of synoptic-scale wave activities over the Eurasian continent and midsummer (July–August) rainfall in eastern China are evaluated on an interannual scale based on station data, ERA5 reanalysis, and NSIDC sea ice observations. The analysis is performed using bandpass filtering, singular value decomposition, and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Results show that in years with strong synoptic-scale wave activities over West Siberia, rainfall in eastern China presents a “dipole” spatial pattern, with decreased rainfall north of the Yangtze River and improved rainfall to the south. In years with weak synoptic-scale wave activities, rainfall in eastern China displays a “tripole” spatial pattern. This pattern corresponds to enhanced rainfall in South China and North China but diminished rainfall in the Yangtze River basin. Further analyses reveal that in years with active synoptic-scale wave activities, the Northeast Asian high-pressure ridge improves, and its eastern anomalous northeasterly winds restrain the intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon. These phenomena lead to the dipole rainfall pattern. In years with weaker synoptic-scale wave activities, the subtropical high exhibits westward extension and northward advancement, which results in the tripole rainfall pattern. Arctic sea ice is determined as the primary factor affecting the intensity variation in synoptic-scale wave activities over the Eurasian continent in midsummer. Decreased (increased) sea ice from the Kara Sea to the eastern Barents Sea strengthens (weakens) the meridional temperature gradient in the central Eurasian region, which raises (diminishes) the atmospheric baroclinicity in the West Siberian area and improves (reduces) synoptic-scale wave activity. In addition, the strengthening of westerlies over West Siberia in the northern part of the jet stream enables the downstream propagation of upstream synoptic-scale waves, which enhances the synoptic-scale wave activities in the West Siberian region.

     

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