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融合地理感知注意力的城市内涝预测模型研究

Urban Flooding Prediction Model Integrated with a Geospatial-Aware Attention Module

  • 摘要: 提出了一种基于Transformer模型的新型城市雨涝预测模型。利用Transformer模型在时序预测任务上的良好性能,并创新性地融入了地理感知注意力模块(Geospatial-aware Attention Module),以更好地捕捉城市内涝的空间异质性和地理特征,增强了模型对城市地形等空间特征的学习能力,结合南昌市2023年6~8月的降水数据及城市内涝监测站的水位数据开展实验,结果表明本文提出的方法相较原始Transformer模型在城市内涝预测任务中表现更优,且模型仍能保持较好的预测效率,均方根误差较原模型降低0.0006,决定系数较原模型提高了0.071。这表明本文提出了地理感知注意力模块能够有效提升时序模型在城市内涝预测任务中的性能。

     

    Abstract: This paper proposes a novel, Transformer-based model for predicting urban-rain-induced flooding. The model leverages the remarkable performance of Transformers in time-series prediction tasks and innovatively integrates a geospatial-aware attention module to better capture the spatial heterogeneity and geographical features of urban flooding, thereby enhancing the model’s ability to learn spatial features, such as urban terrain. Experiments were conducted using precipitation data from June to August 2023 in Nanchang City and water-level data from urban flood monitoring stations. The results showed that the proposed method outperforms the original Transformer model for urban flooding prediction tasks while maintaining high prediction efficiency. The root mean square error of the proposed model is lower by 0.0006 compared to that of the original model, and the coefficient of determination is higher by 0.071. This indicates that the geospatial-aware attention module proposed herein can effectively improve the performance of time series models in urban flooding prediction tasks.

     

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