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基于自动气象站资料的夏季降水路径研究

Research on Summer Precipitation Paths Based on Automatic Meteorological Station Data

  • 摘要: 本文综合考虑降水云团的移动速度、气象站点之间的距离以及降水的整体移动路径方向等因素,提出了一种降水路径识别方法,该方法分为临近气象站降水量时空滞后相关性检测、主成分分析和曲线拟合三步。基于2010~2020年6~8月北京市自动气象站资料,利用该方法对北京市夏季降水路径进行了识别分析,结果表明:北京市全域现有自动气象站最近站间距为0.1~7.7 km,平均为3.3 km,北京市夏季主要存在18条降水路径,整体呈西南~东北走向,路径长度10~125 km,平均长度33 km,路径降水持续时长13~148 min,平均时长43 min;经过城区的降水路径普遍较长,山区降水路径较短且都位于迎风坡;降水路径不一定通过强降水区域,沿着降水路径的方向降水量呈现出逐渐变大或逐渐减小的趋势。该降水路径识别方法可靠且易操作,识别结果可为人工影响天气作业布局提供技术支撑,对短临天气预报和预警也具有一定参考价值。

     

    Abstract: This paper proposes a precipitation path identification method that accounts for factors such as precipitation cloud speed, the spacing between meteorological stations, and the overall direction of precipitation movement. The method consists of three steps: spatial–temporal lag correlation detection of precipitation at neighboring stations, principal component analysis, and curve fitting. It was applied to identify and analyze summer precipitation paths in Beijing using data from automatic meteorological stations collected between June and August from 2010 to 2020. The results indicate that the shortest distance between adjacent stations in Beijing is 0.1–7.7 km, with an average of 3.3 km. A total of 18 primary summer precipitation paths, generally oriented from southwest to northeast. The path lengths range from 10 to 125 km (average 33 km), and the durations along the paths vary from 13 to 148 min (average 43 min). Precipitation paths passing through urban areas tend to be longer, whereas those in mountainous regions are shorter and mostly located on windward slopes. Notably, precipitation paths do not necessarily traverse zones of heavy precipitation. Precipitation amounts often increase or decrease progressively along the paths. Overall, the precipitation path identification method is reliable and practical. Its results can support the spatial deployment of artificial weather modification operations and provide valuable reference for short-term and nowcasting applications.

     

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