高级检索

CMA-CPEFS模式对陕西地区云宏观参量的预报性能检验

Forecast Performance Evaluation of CMA-CPEFS Model for Cloud Macro-physical Parameters in Shaanxi Area

  • 摘要: 为评估CPEFS模式对陕西地区云宏观参量的预报性能,结合FY-4B卫星、雷达、探空、雨量、云雷达及微波辐射计等多源探测数据,针对CPFES模式预报的2024年3月23日陕西地区云产品开展系统性检验,主要结论如下:CPEFS模式对云带和降水宏观参量的预报能力总体良好。在云带方面,模式预报的云系位置与卫星监测结果基本一致,但在陕北地区存在漏报现象。降水方面,模式能够较准确地把握降水的大致范围、演变趋势和量级分布,但在具体落区和降水量级上仍存在一定偏差。在云顶参数方面,CPEFS模式预报的云顶高度和温度与卫星反演结果基本吻合,但高值区的空间分布与实况存在差异。其中,陕北地区出现空报和漏报,而关中和陕南地区的一致性较高。在云高模拟方面,CPEFS模式模拟的云底高度与云雷达和探空结果较为接近,其表现优于对云顶高度的模拟。模式对连续云层的演变也表现出较好的模拟能力。CPEFS对温度的模拟效果优于相对湿度。在垂直方向上,模式能够较好地反映温度与相对湿度的高低空配置特征及其日变化规律。

     

    Abstract: To evaluate the forecast performance of the convection-permitting ensemble forecasting system (CPEFS) model for cloud macrophysical parameters in Shaanxi area, a comprehensive evaluation was conducted using multisource observational data—including FY-4B satellite, radar, sounding, rainfall, cloud radar, and microwave radiometer measurements—collected in Shaanxi area on 23 March 2024. The main findings are as follows: The CPEFS model demonstrates generally good performance in forecasting macroscopic cloud and precipitation parameters. Regarding cloud bands, the predicted cloud system locations are largely consistent with satellite observations, although some omissions occur in northern Shaanxi. For precipitation, the model captures the overall spatial extent, evolutionary trend, and intensity distribution reasonably well; however, certain deviations remain in precise localization and rainfall amounts. With respect to cloud-top parameters, the predicted cloud-top height and temperature show broad agreement with satellite retrievals; however, spatial discrepancies are evident in the distribution of high-value areas compared with observations. Some false alarms and missed directions occur in northern Shaanxi, whereas the central and southern regions exhibit higher consistency. In terms of cloud vertical structure, the simulated cloud-base height agrees well with cloud radar and sounding data, outperforming the simulation of cloud-top height. The model also shows strong capability in reproducing the evolution of continuous cloud layers. Furthermore, the CPEFS model performs better in simulating temperature than relative humidity. In the vertical dimension, it effectively represents the high–low altitude configuration and diurnal variations of both temperature and relative humidity.

     

/

返回文章
返回