Abstract:
To evaluate the forecast performance of the convection-permitting ensemble forecasting system (CPEFS) model for cloud macrophysical parameters in Shaanxi area, a comprehensive evaluation was conducted using multisource observational data—including FY-4B satellite, radar, sounding, rainfall, cloud radar, and microwave radiometer measurements—collected in Shaanxi area on 23 March 2024. The main findings are as follows: The CPEFS model demonstrates generally good performance in forecasting macroscopic cloud and precipitation parameters. Regarding cloud bands, the predicted cloud system locations are largely consistent with satellite observations, although some omissions occur in northern Shaanxi. For precipitation, the model captures the overall spatial extent, evolutionary trend, and intensity distribution reasonably well; however, certain deviations remain in precise localization and rainfall amounts. With respect to cloud-top parameters, the predicted cloud-top height and temperature show broad agreement with satellite retrievals; however, spatial discrepancies are evident in the distribution of high-value areas compared with observations. Some false alarms and missed directions occur in northern Shaanxi, whereas the central and southern regions exhibit higher consistency. In terms of cloud vertical structure, the simulated cloud-base height agrees well with cloud radar and sounding data, outperforming the simulation of cloud-top height. The model also shows strong capability in reproducing the evolution of continuous cloud layers. Furthermore, the CPEFS model performs better in simulating temperature than relative humidity. In the vertical dimension, it effectively represents the high–low altitude configuration and diurnal variations of both temperature and relative humidity.