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2024年丹江口流域一次积层混合云降水过程的人工增雨催化模拟研究

Seeding Modeling Study of a Stratiform–Convective Mixed-Cloud Precipitation Event in the Danjiangkou Basin in 2024

  • 摘要: 基于耦合了CAMS(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences)云微物理方案的WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)中尺度模式,针对2024年3月24日丹江口流域一次受中纬度西风槽东移与低层暖湿输送控制的积层混合云降水过程,系统模拟了人工冰晶播撒对云微物理过程及降水的影响。结果表明,此次降水过程呈现暖云与冷云降水机制共存的特征:降水初期至旺盛期以暖云碰并主导,19:00(北京时间)后以霰粒子融化过程主导。目标云系云顶高度超过12 km,4~6 km层过冷水含量约0.01~0.3 g/kg,自然冰晶浓度较低,结合上升气流成为理想催化区。在冷暖云降水机制协同作用下播撒人工冰晶(SC1)发现,催化后影响区地面降水呈现先减少后增加的变化。催化后30分钟内,冰晶凝华增长后碰并雪晶,雪晶增加,但增多的雪晶没有下落到暖区融化成雨滴,反而云滴和霰的减少导致了雨滴碰并云滴和霰融化成雨滴减少,最终地面降水减少。催化后50分钟至3 h,下游区域霰收集雪晶和霰融化过程增强,为暖区上层提供初始大雨滴,导致雨滴碰并云滴过程也增强,最终冷暖云降水过程都增强导致地面降水增加,整个评估区内3 h累积增雨量为2.438×105 t。敏感性试验表明,过量播撒冰晶会因水汽消耗削弱霰的源项,导致霰融化减弱,增雨量减少;单一高度层的敏感性试验表明,云中5.2 km即-7℃温度层催化增雨效果最优。因此,协同优化积层混合云催化的播撒剂量与高度等,可显著提升降水效率,为丹江口流域云水资源调控提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: In this study, we systematically examined the impact of artificial ice crystal seeding on cloud microphysical processes and precipitation during a stratiform–convective mixed cloud precipitation event in the Danjiangkou basin on 24 March 2024, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model–based mesoscale model coupled with the cloud microphysics program of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences. This event was controlled by the eastward movement of a mid-latitude westerly trough and the low-level transport of warm, moist air. The results showed that this precipitation process is characterized by the coexistence of warm-cloud and cold-cloud precipitation mechanisms: Warm cloud coalescence dominated the initial-to-peak precipitation stages, while the melting of graupel particles became predominant afterward. Moreover, the target cloud system exhibited a maximum cloud-top height exceeding 12 km, with supercooled water content of 0.01–0.3 g/kg concentrated in a 4–6 km layer, where low natural ice crystal concentrations and updrafts created optimal conditions for cloud seeding. In addition, seeding with artificial ice crystals, under the synergistic effect of warm- and cold-cloud precipitation processes, initially reduced the ground precipitation in the affected area, which later increased. Within 30 min postseeding, ice crystals grew through deposition and aggregated with snow particles, resulting in an increase in the snow mass mixing ratio. However, the increased snow particles failed to descend into the warm layer for melting, while reductions in cloud droplets and graupel weakened the process of collision–coalescence and graupel melting, leading to decreased surface precipitation. From 50 min to 3 h postseeding, enhanced graupel collection of snow crystals and graupel melting in the downstream region provided large initial raindrops to the upper warm sector, thereby intensifying raindrop collision–coalescence with cloud droplets. This ultimately enhanced warm- and cold-cloud precipitation processes, resulting in greater surface rainfall. The total 3-h accumulated rainfall increase across the evaluation area reached 2.438 × 105 t. Sensitivity experiments showed that excessive ice crystal seeding reduced rainfall enhancement by depleting water vapor and weakening graupel production. Among single-layer seeding experiments, the 5.2 km (−7℃) layer yielded the optimal rain enhancement results. Therefore, synergistically optimizing the seeding dose and height in stratiform–convective mixed clouds can considerably improve the precipitation efficiency, providing a scientific basis for cloud-water resource management in the Danjiangkou basin.

     

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