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丹江口流域飞机积冰过程的云物理特征分析及预报检验

Analysis of Cloud Microphysical Characteristics and Forecast Verification of Aircraft Icing in the Danjiangkou Reservoir

  • 摘要: 利用飞机、卫星、雷达等观测资料和CMA-CPEFS v2.0模式资料,对2024年5月10日湖北省南水北调中线水源区的飞机积冰事件的云物理特征进行了分析。机载探测显示,在温度−12~−5°C、过冷水含量为0.2~0.4 g m−3条件下,飞机快速积冰,厚度达5 cm;而温度上升至−5°C后,积冰逐渐融化。地基Ka波段云雷达的数据表明,积冰厚度5 cm时反射率为−13.5 dBZ,厚度降至4 cm时反射率为−4 dBZ,显示积冰强度与雷达反射率并不是完全一致,过冷水是主要因素。与卫星反演产品对比发现,CMA-CPEFS v2.0模式可较好模拟系统东移过程及强度,但在具体位置、强度及云带预报方面存在一定偏差,需借助实况监测资料进行修正。

     

    Abstract: Using observational data from aircraft, satellites, and radars, as well as CMA-CPEFS v2.0 model dataoutput, this study analyzes the cloud microphysical characteristics of an aircraft icing event that occurred on 10 May 2024, over the Danjiangkou Reservoir—the water source area of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in Hubei Province. Aircraft-based observations revealed rapid ice accretion of up to 5 cm under conditions of temperatures ranging from −12°C to −5°C and supercooled liquid water content between 0.2 and 0.4 g m−3. The ice gradually melted as temperatures rose above −5°C. Ground-based Ka-band cloud radar data indicated that radar reflectivity increased from −13.5 dBZ at an ice thickness of 5 cm to −4 dBZ at 4 cm. This finding suggested that icing intensity and radar reflectivity were not entirely consistent, with supercooled water content as the dominant influencing factor. Compared with satellite retrieval products, the CMA-CPEFS v2.0 model more effectively simulated the eastward movement and intensity of the system. However, discrepancies were observed in the location, intensity, and cloud band forecasts, all of which need to be corrected based on the observed data.

     

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