Abstract:
Aiming at a typical low vortex with shear line precipitation process in the Danjiangkou Water Area in the upper reach of Hanjiang River basin on 4 March 2018, a full chain technological experiment of cloud water resource development and coupling utilization was successfully realized. The technologies included the prediction of operational condition and aircraft operation plan for precipitation enhancement, prediction of rainfall enhancement effect, numerical simulation evaluation of actual aircraft operation effect in the whole process. The airplane precipitation enhancement experiment for specific target area of water requirement area (Hanjing River and Jingqianjiang River) was carried out. CPEFS-SEED prediction system based on mesoscale model (WRF) coupled with CAMS cloud microphysics scheme and three-dimensional cold cloud seeding model was used to simulate the rainfall process and silver iodide (AgI) seeding operation by aircraft for rainfall enhancement. Based on the analysis of weather situation and thermal dynamic conditions, CPEFS-SEED was used to put forward the operation plan one day in advance according to the cloud condition prediction analysis, the operation effect of the plan was predicted and analyzed to guide the aircraft operation of rainfall enhancement. After the operation, the simulation of aircraft operation was carried out and the numerical evaluation results of operation effect were obtained. The numerical prediction analysis showed that the precipitation cloud system was a stratiform cloud with uneven structure. The cloud near the warm shear line developed vigorously vertically and the content of supercooled water was also large. It had a ‘seeder-feeder’ cloud structure and the cold cloud precipitation process was dominant. Southern Shaanxi in Danjiangkou basin had good rainfall enhancement conditions. The pre-evaluation results of prediction of the operation effect on rainfall enhancement showed the diffusion of AgI seeding directly impacts the water demand areas in the southeastern Shaanxi region, upstream of the Danjiangkou Reservoir. The pre-evaluation results of prediction of rainfall enhancement effect in different seeding amount showed that the average precipitation increasing rate in the target area of two kinds of seeding amount was 1.51% and 2.05%, and the maximum local precipitation increasing rate was respectively 14.64% and 13.77%, respectively. When the seeding amount of AgI was doubled, the predicted effect of precipitation enhancement in the target area was better. Due to the limitation of airspace, the actual flight area was located in the northeast of the predicted area in operation plan, which was located over Danjiang River in water demand area. In the variation area of rainfall over northwest of Henan Province, the precipitation was mainly increased. The average precipitation increasing rate in the target area was 1.17% and the maximum local precipitation increasing rate was 14.16%, respectively. However, most of the precipitation enhancement area was fell outside the target area. Keeping the actual aircraft flight trajectory and seeding amount unchanged, the actual aircraft flight trajectory was shifted 100 km southwest upstream. The numerical simulation of AgI diffusion directly affected the Danjiangkou Water Area of the upper reaches of target area (Hanjiang and Jingqan River). In the target area was dominated by precipitation enhancement. The average precipitation increasing rate in the target area was 3.67% and the maximum local precipitation increasing rate was 17.16%, respectively. After shifting the actual aircraft flight trajectory, the effect of precipitation enhancement in the target area was better.