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数值模式在一次丹江口流域特定目标人工增雨作业中的应用

Application of Numerical Models in a Targeted Artificial Rain Enhancement Operation over the Danjiangkou Basin

  • 摘要: 针对2018年3月4日丹江口流域的一次低涡切变型降水过程,利用耦合了三维冷云催化模块的云降水显式预报系统(CPEFS-SEED),开展了包含人工增雨多环节的数值研究,其中包括作业条件分析、作业预案预报、预案效果预估和实际作业效果数值评估,并实施了以流域需水区为特定目标区的飞机增雨作业,开展了飞机作业的仿真模拟,得到作业效果的数值评估结果。分析表明,降水云系是具有不均匀结构的层状云,暖切附近的云垂直发展旺盛,过冷水含量较大,具有“催化—供给”云结构,冷云降水过程占主导地位,陕西南部的丹江口流域具有较好的人工增雨条件。基于CPEFS-SEED的作业预案效果预估显示,碘化银催化剂扩散直接影响丹江口水库上游的陕西东南部流域需水区;对于两种催化剂量作业预案,目标区内均以增雨为主,区域平均增雨率分别为1.51%和2.05%,最大局地增雨率达到14.64%和13.77%。当催化剂量加倍时,目标区的增雨效果更好。由于空域限制,实际飞行作业区域偏离预报作业预案区,但作业区仍以增雨为主,区域平均增雨率达1.17%,最大局地增雨率达14.16%,但大部分增雨区在目标区外。保持催化剂量等参数不变,如果将作业区向上游平移100 km,目标区基本达到了连片播撒。目标区内以增雨为主,区域平均增雨率达3.67%,最大局地增雨率分别达17.16%,平移后目标区需水流域的增雨效果更好。这表明,对于特定目标区人工增雨而言,依据催化高度上风向、风速、云系移向、移速等要素科学确定催化区的位置,或者说科学确定催化区离目标区的上游距离是至关重要的。

     

    Abstract: Aiming at a typical low vortex with shear line precipitation process in the Danjiangkou Water Area in the upper reach of Hanjiang River basin on 4 March 2018, a full chain technological experiment of cloud water resource development and coupling utilization was successfully realized. The technologies included the prediction of operational condition and aircraft operation plan for precipitation enhancement, prediction of rainfall enhancement effect, numerical simulation evaluation of actual aircraft operation effect in the whole process. The airplane precipitation enhancement experiment for specific target area of water requirement area (Hanjing River and Jingqianjiang River) was carried out. CPEFS-SEED prediction system based on mesoscale model (WRF) coupled with CAMS cloud microphysics scheme and three-dimensional cold cloud seeding model was used to simulate the rainfall process and silver iodide (AgI) seeding operation by aircraft for rainfall enhancement. Based on the analysis of weather situation and thermal dynamic conditions, CPEFS-SEED was used to put forward the operation plan one day in advance according to the cloud condition prediction analysis, the operation effect of the plan was predicted and analyzed to guide the aircraft operation of rainfall enhancement. After the operation, the simulation of aircraft operation was carried out and the numerical evaluation results of operation effect were obtained. The numerical prediction analysis showed that the precipitation cloud system was a stratiform cloud with uneven structure. The cloud near the warm shear line developed vigorously vertically and the content of supercooled water was also large. It had a ‘seeder-feeder’ cloud structure and the cold cloud precipitation process was dominant. Southern Shaanxi in Danjiangkou basin had good rainfall enhancement conditions. The pre-evaluation results of prediction of the operation effect on rainfall enhancement showed the diffusion of AgI seeding directly impacts the water demand areas in the southeastern Shaanxi region, upstream of the Danjiangkou Reservoir. The pre-evaluation results of prediction of rainfall enhancement effect in different seeding amount showed that the average precipitation increasing rate in the target area of two kinds of seeding amount was 1.51% and 2.05%, and the maximum local precipitation increasing rate was respectively 14.64% and 13.77%, respectively. When the seeding amount of AgI was doubled, the predicted effect of precipitation enhancement in the target area was better. Due to the limitation of airspace, the actual flight area was located in the northeast of the predicted area in operation plan, which was located over Danjiang River in water demand area. In the variation area of rainfall over northwest of Henan Province, the precipitation was mainly increased. The average precipitation increasing rate in the target area was 1.17% and the maximum local precipitation increasing rate was 14.16%, respectively. However, most of the precipitation enhancement area was fell outside the target area. Keeping the actual aircraft flight trajectory and seeding amount unchanged, the actual aircraft flight trajectory was shifted 100 km southwest upstream. The numerical simulation of AgI diffusion directly affected the Danjiangkou Water Area of the upper reaches of target area (Hanjiang and Jingqan River). In the target area was dominated by precipitation enhancement. The average precipitation increasing rate in the target area was 3.67% and the maximum local precipitation increasing rate was 17.16%, respectively. After shifting the actual aircraft flight trajectory, the effect of precipitation enhancement in the target area was better.

     

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