基于CMA-CPEFS数值模式的丹江口双机联合增雨作业效果评估研究
Effectiveness Evaluation of Dual-Aircraft Collaborative Rain-Enhancement Operations in Danjiangkou by Using the CMA-CPEFS Numerical Model
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摘要: 本文针对2023年6月4日在湖北丹江口地区开展的两次飞机增雨联合作业,基于CMA-CPEFS数值模式仿真模拟实际催化作业的过程,研究双架次飞机联合增雨作业后云和降水的一系列宏微观特征的变化及其机理,以分析和评估实际人工增雨作业效果。结果表明,模式合理地模拟出了云和降水的主要宏观特征,模拟结果显示作业云区具有较好的冷云催化条件。在此定性的基础上,进行数值模拟定量诊断表明:(1)催化作业对目标云系的雷达回波产生了影响,催化导致影响区回波强度有增强,模拟与实际观测的雷达回波增强趋势相似;(2)双架次联合作业均产生增雨效果,分析表明第二架次的催化效果强于第一架次;(3)催化最终导致地面降水增加,霰的增加是降水增加的主要来源。作业后影响区内冰晶和雪粒子明显增加,最终导致冷云区下部霰粒子增加,对应的暖区霰融化形成雨滴的过程增强,同时暖云区云雨碰并过程也增强。(4)催化作业达到了一定的增雨效果,作业区下游出现大面积增雨区,双架次作业后,10h作业影响时段内局地最大增雨量1.5mm,影响区平均增雨率2.1%,净增雨量约78万吨。Abstract: This study investigates the cloud and precipitation responses to dual-aircraft collaborative rain-enhancement operations conducted on June 4, 2023, in Danjiangkou, Hubei Province, China. Utilizing the CMA-CPEFS numerical model to simulate the actual seeding processes, we analyze the mechanistic changes in macro- and microphysical characteristics of clouds and precipitation following the joint operations and evaluate their effectiveness. The model successfully reproduced key macroscopic cloud and precipitation features, with simulations indicating favorable cold-cloud seeding conditions in the target cloud system. Quantitative diagnostic results reveal: (1) The seeding operations influenced radar reflectivity patterns, with enhanced echo intensities in the affected regions, consistent with observational radar trends. (2) Both aircraft sorties generated measurable rain enhancement, with the second operation exhibiting stronger seeding efficiency than the first. (3) Increased surface precipitation primarily originated from graupel growth. Post-seeding, ice crystals and snow particles significantly increased in the cold-cloud layer, driving graupel accumulation in lower cold-cloud regions. This enhanced graupel melting into raindrops in the warm layer and intensified cloud-rain collision-coalescence processes. (4) The operations achieved localized rainfall enhancement, with a maximum 1.5 mm precipitation increase over 10 hours in the core impact zone. The affected area exhibited an average rainfall increase rate of 2.1%, yielding a net precipitation gain of approximately 78,000 metric tons, while downstream regions experienced extensive rainfall expansion.
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