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上世纪80年代以来云南秋季降水的年代际变化及其成因

Interdecadal Variation of Autumn Precipitation in Yunnan since the 1980s and Its Causes

  • 摘要: 本文利用1981~2023年来云南秋季地面站点降水量观测资料和同期再分析资料,采用聚类分析方法,对云南秋季降水的区域变化特征进行分析研究发现:(1)从1990年代至2000年代,云南的秋季降水经历了一个从东南部减少开始,逐步往西北方向减少的过程;2010年代云南中部和东南部秋季降水开始增多,云南西部和西北部秋季降水仍然在持续减少;(2)云南秋季降水主要与中低纬地区低层大气中的偏南气流水汽输送密切关联,而西太平洋副热带高压(副高)的西伸过程对偏南气流水汽输送的影响较大。但其位置西伸的影响呈现出复杂的非线性的关系,表现为副高不同的位置对不同区域的低层偏南风水汽输送有不同的影响,进而对云南不同区域秋季降水有不同的影响。(3)当秋季平均副高西脊点从140°E附近西伸至110°E附近时,不利于偏南气流向云南输送水汽,云南各地秋季降水均减少;但当秋季平均副高西脊点从110°E附近进一步西伸到90°E附近时,其西伸异常仍然阻碍云南西部地区的偏南气流,但却有利于南海海域的偏南气流向云南输送水汽。导致云南中东部地区的秋季降水转为偏多,但云南西部到西北部降水仍持续偏少。

     

    Abstract: Utilizing observational data of surface station precipitation in autumn in Yunnan from 1981 to 2023, along with concurrent reanalysis data, this study employs cluster analysis to examine the regional variation characteristics of autumn precipitation in Yunnan. The findings are as follows: (1) From the 1990s to the 2000s, autumn precipitation in Yunnan underwent a process of reduction starting from the southeast and gradually extending northwestward. In the 2010s, autumn precipitation began to increase in central and southeastern Yunnan, while it continued to decrease in western and northwestern Yunnan. (2) Autumn precipitation in Yunnan is closely associated with southerly moisture transport in the lower atmosphere over low- to mid-latitude regions. The westward extension of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) significantly influences this southerly moisture transport. However, the impact of its westward extension exhibits a complex, nonlinear relationship, as the position of the WPSH differently affects low-level southerly moisture transport in various regions, thereby exerting varying influences on autumn precipitation across different parts of Yunnan. (3) When the average autumn western ridge point of the WPSH extends westward from around 140°E to approximately 110°E, it hinders southerly moisture transport to Yunnan, resulting in reduced autumn precipitation across the region. However, when the average autumn western ridge point further extends westward from around 110°E to approximately 90°E, this westward extension anomaly continues to impede southerly flow in western Yunnan but favors southerly moisture transport from the South China Sea to Yunnan. Consequently, autumn precipitation in central and eastern Yunnan turns to above-normal levels, while precipitation in western to northwestern Yunnan remains below-normal.

     

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