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RS与GIS支持下的景观生态风险评价及其风险因子探测

Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment and Risk Factor Detection Supported by RS and GIS

  • 摘要: 景观生态风险是指生态系统在自然或人为干扰下,结构、功能及生态服务可能遭受的破坏程度及其严重性。准确识别和分析风险因子是识别生态脆弱区和主要风险源的关键步骤,能够为生态保护、土地利用规划以及政策制定提供科学依据。本文以呼伦贝尔西部多年冻土区为研究区域,基于MODIS遥感数据,结合地理探测器方法,对2001年至2021年间的景观生态风险进行了全面评估和分析。通过构建景观生态风险评价模型,深入探讨了土地利用变化和景观格局演变的时空动态,并对其风险因子进行探测。研究结果表明:(1)草原景观为该区域的主要景观类型,湿地景观呈现出显著的扩展趋势,城市与工业用地(城工景观)面积也持续增加,反映出城市化与工业化进程的加快;(2)该区域的整体生态风险在过去20年中呈现出逐步下降的趋势,低风险区面积有所扩大,这一变化主要归因于湿地的增加及其在水源涵养、气候调节等方面发挥的生态功能。然而,农田与森林交界区域的生态风险仍处于较高水平,主要受景观破碎化和边缘效应的影响;(3)人为干扰是主要的生态风险因素,人为干扰因素的影响大于地形地貌和气候因素。地理探测器的分析结果进一步强调了不同因素之间的交互作用对景观生态风险的共同影响。科学地识别和评估区域景观格局和生态风险对于理解生态系统安全性和未来利益具有重要的现实意义。

     

    Abstract: Landscape ecological risk refers to the degree and severity of damage that an ecosystem"s structure, function, and services may experience under natural or human-induced disturbances. Accurately identifying and analyzing risk factors is a critical step in pinpointing ecologically vulnerable areas and major sources of risk. This process provides scientific support for ecological protection, land use planning, and policy formulation.This study focuses on the western permafrost region of Hulunbuir, using MODIS remote sensing data combined with the Geodetector method to conduct a comprehensive assessment and analysis of landscape ecological risk from 2001 to 2021. By constructing a landscape ecological risk evaluation model, the study delves into the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use changes and landscape pattern evolution, while detecting the associated risk factors.The findings reveal the following: (1) Grassland is the dominant landscape type in the region, wetland landscapes show a significant expansion trend, and urban and industrial areas are continuously growing, reflecting accelerated urbanization and industrialization; (2) Over the past 20 years, the region"s overall ecological risk has gradually declined, with low-risk areas expanding, largely due to the increased wetlands and their functions in water conservation, climate regulation, and more. However, the ecological risks in the border areas between farmland and forests remain high, mainly due to landscape fragmentation and edge effects; (3) Human interference is the predominant ecological risk factor, exerting a greater impact than terrain, topography, and climate. The geographic detector analysis further emphasizes the compound impact of interactions among various factors on landscape ecological risks. Effectively identifying and evaluating regional landscape patterns and ecological risks holds significant practical value for understanding ecosystem security and potential future benefits.

     

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