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针对山西夏季短时降水预报的初值敏感区分析及加密观测布局设计

Analysis of Initial Sensitive Areas and Design of Encrypted Observation Layout for Short-Time Summer Precipitation Forecasting in Shanxi Province

  • 摘要: 针对2021~2024年山西地区14次夏季短时降水过程,使用高分辨率天气研究预报模式(WRF)进行了模拟分析,在此基础上,利用条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)方法识别了这些降水过程的初值敏感区,然后根据所有过程的初值敏感区的重叠程度进一步确定了共同敏感区。最后,基于上述共同敏感区设计了加密观测布局,并通过观测系统模拟试验(OSSE)验证了上述加密观测布局的有效性。结果表明:WRF模式基本能够模拟出这14次夏季短时降水过程;14次过程中利用CNOP方法识别的敏感区存在显著差异,当扩大敏感区的范围时,不同过程的敏感区的重合度增加,取敏感区重合度达到50%以上的格点为共同敏感区,结果显示共同敏感区主要位于山西北部的大同市、西部的吕梁市、以及中部的太原和晋中地区一带。基于上述共同敏感区,设计了加密观测布局,此外在敏感区外也设计了一组加密观测布局,OSSE试验结果表明敏感区内的加密观测布局对降水预报技巧的改善程度更大。进一步在上述共同敏感区内设计了高达500 m分辨率的加密观测布局,并再次利用OSSE试验表明在高分辨率下,同化低分辨率下识别的敏感区内的高分辨率加密观测资料,可以有效改善山西地区夏季短时降水的预报技巧。这说明,低分辨率下得到的敏感区对高分辨率是适用的,可以指导高分辨率下的加密观测布局设计。

     

    Abstract: A high-resolution weather research forecasting model (WRF) was used to simulate and analyze 14 short-time summer precipitation events that occurred in the Shanxi Province in the past 5 years. Based on this, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method was used to identify the initial sensitive areas of these precipitation events. Then, the common sensitive areas were determined based on the overlap degree of the initial sensitive areas of all events. Finally, an encrypted observation layout was designed based on the common sensitive areas mentioned above, and its effectiveness was verified through observation system simulation experiments (OSSE). The results indicated that the WRF model can simulate these 14 short-time summer precipitation events, and significant differences in the sensitive areas were identified using the CNOP method during these events. When the scope of sensitive areas was expanded, the overlap between sensitive areas across different events increased. Grid points with overlap exceeding 50% were selected as common sensitive areas. The results showed that these common areas were mainly located in Datong City in the northwest of Shanxi, Lvliang City in the west, and Taiyuan and Jinzhong areas in the central region. Based on the aforementioned common sensitive areas, two intensive observation networks, one within and one outside the sensitive areas, were designed separately. The OSSEs demonstrated that the intensive observation layout within sensitive areas significantly improved precipitation forecasting skills. Furthermore, an intensive observation network with a resolution of up to 500 m was designed within these sensitive areas. Subsequent OSSEs confirmed that assimilating high-resolution intensive observation data from the sensitive areas identified at lower resolution effectively enhanced the forecasting skill for short-time summer precipitation in Shanxi. This indicates that the sensitive areas derived at low resolution are applicable at high resolution and can guide the layout design of encrypted observations at high resolution.

     

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