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南方电网区域春季太阳辐射时空变化及其跨季节预测信号研究

Variability Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Spring Surface Solar Radiation in the Southern Power Grid Region*

  • 摘要: 光伏发电在我国电力系统结构转型中扮演着重要角色,探究南方电网区域春季太阳辐射的时空变化特征及其影响机制,对预测其光伏发电潜力及优化电力调度具有重要意义。本文利用1979-2023年ERA5再分析资料,应用经验正交函数分解、Mann-Kendall突变检验、相关性分析、合成分析以及回归拟合等方法,系统探究了南方电网区域春季太阳辐射的时空变率、关键驱动机制及其跨季节可预测性。研究发现,春季太阳辐射呈现显著的年代际增多趋势。EOF分析揭示了春季太阳辐射存在“全区一致型”(EOF1)和“东西反向型”(EOF2)两个主要模态,其中EOF1主要受赤道中东太平洋类La Nina海温异常的影响,而EOF2则与Nino4区海温和印度洋海盆模态指数协同作用紧密相关。进一步分析发现,前冬季的海温信号对春季太阳辐射变化具有显著的超前指示意义。因此,本文以前冬季海温指数为预测因子,构建了研究区域东西两个子区域春季辐射距平的回归预测模型,独立样本预报检验表明模型对辐射距平的年际变化具有较好的预报能力。本研究不仅揭示了关键的海洋前兆信号及其物理机制,还初步验证了该区域春季太阳辐射的季节可预测性,为提升光伏发电的月-季尺度预测能力、保障区域能源安全提供了关键科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Photovoltaic power generation plays a crucial role in the structural transformation of China"s power system. Investigating the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of spring solar radiation variability in the Southern Power Grid region is highly significant for predicting its photovoltaic generation potential and optimizing power dispatch. Utilizing surface solar radiation data, sea surface temperature, and atmospheric circulation data from 1979 to 2023, methods including Empirical Orthogonal Function decomposition, Mann-Kendall mutation test, correlation analysis, and composite analysis were employed to examine the spatiotemporal features of spring surface solar radiation changes in this region and their influencing factors. The results indicate an overall increasing trend in radiation over the study area during the past four decades, with the most significant increase observed in spring. Further investigation revealed that the spatial distribution of spring radiation variability is dominated by two primary modes: an east-west dipole pattern and a regionally uniform pattern. Additionally, it was found that winter sea surface temperature conditions in key oceanic regions possess predictive potential for spring photovoltaic generation, serving as an effective precursor signal for cross-seasonal forecasting.

     

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