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海南夏季一次对流降水过程数值模拟研究

Numerical Simulation Study of a Summer Convective Precipitation Event in Hainan

  • 摘要: 基于地面自动站、S波段多普勒雷达及FNL再分析等资料,利用中尺度数值模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)对2024年8月17日海南省一次对流云降水过程进行了观测分析和数值模拟,研究了对流降水发展演变和动力、微物理结构特征。结果表明,此次降水过程主要受北部深厚低压系统和副热带高压共同的影响,伴随低空西南急流,提供了充沛的水汽,大气层结不稳定,有利于强降水过程的形成和发展。数值模式总体上能够比较好的模拟出此次对流降水过程,云水自动转换与云雨碰并占雨水来源的63%,霰和雪融化对雨水贡献仅占24%。降水期间降水效率仅48%~65%,说明本次对流云降水效率更依赖低层暖云过程的高效凝结和碰并机制,暖云过程是此次降水的主要机制。针对6种不同微物理方案的敏感性试验均表明暖云过程显著强于冷云过程,进一步证实了结论的可靠性。本研究揭示了海南省对流降水的演变特征、云系动力和微物理结构特征及其与降雨效率的关系,对降水预报提供了一定的理论依据和参考价值。

     

    Abstract: This study employed data from surface automatic weather stations, S-band Doppler radar, and the NCEP Final (FNL) operational global analysis, together with the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, to analyze and simulate a convective precipitation event that occurred over Hainan Province on 17 August 2024. The evolution of precipitation and its dynamic and microphysical structures were examined. The results showed that this precipitation process was mainly influenced by the combined effects of a deep low-pressure system in the north and the subtropical high. These systems were accompanied by a low-level southwest jet that provided abundant water vapor and created an unstable atmospheric stratification. These conditions were conducive to the formation and development of heavy precipitation. The numerical model reproduced this convective precipitation process well. The autoconversion of cloud water into rainwater and the collision–coalescence between cloud water and rainwater accounted for 63% of the rainwater source, while the melting of graupel and snow to rainwater contributed only 24%. During the event, the precipitation efficiency was only 48%–65%, indicating that the precipitation efficiency of this convective cloud relied more on efficient condensation and collision processes within the low-level warm-cloud region, and the warm-cloud process was the main mechanism of this precipitation. Sensitivity tests using six microphysics schemes consistently showed that warm-cloud processes are significantly stronger than cold-cloud processes, thereby verifying the reliability of the findings. Thus, this study reveals the evolution, dynamics, and microphysical structures of the convective precipitation event in Hainan Province and their link to precipitation efficiency, thereby offering a theoretical basis and reference for improving precipitation forecasts.

     

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