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陆地生态系统碳源—碳汇转换特征及其驱动因素的研究进展

Research Progress on Carbon Source-Sink Transition Characteristics and Driving Factors in Terrestrial Ecosystems

  • 摘要: 全球气候变化背景下,陆地生态系统碳源/汇动态在调节大气CO2浓度、减缓气候变化中发挥关键作用。本文基于近年来国内外最新研究成果,系统梳理了陆地生态系统碳源—碳汇转换的数量特征、时空格局及驱动因素,并指出当前研究不足与未来方向。主要结论:1)全球陆地生态系统整体已从碳源转为碳汇,2015~2024年平均碳汇量为2.4±0.8 Pg(C) a-1。中国陆地生态系统是全球重要碳汇,当前碳汇强度为0.20~0.25 Pg(C) a-1,人工林扩张、植被恢复等生态工程是重要因素;2)碳源—碳汇转换受气候因素(气温、干旱、ENSO)、CO2施肥效应、野火、土地利用/覆被变化及森林年龄等多因素综合驱动,且存在显著的区域、尺度异质性与阈值效应;3)未来研究应当提升碳源/汇核算精确性、强化中小尺度过程机理研究及关键阈值识别,为碳中和目标下的生态系统管理与气候治理提供科学支撑。

     

    Abstract: Against the backdrop of global climate change, the dynamics of carbon sources and sinks in terrestrial ecosystems play a pivotal role in regulating atmospheric CO2 concentrations and mitigating climate change. Drawing on the latest domestic and international research findings in recent years, this study systematically synthesizes the quantitative characteristics, spatiotemporal patterns, and driving factors of carbon source-sink transitions in terrestrial ecosystems, while identifying current research gaps and future directions. The key conclusions are as follows: 1) The global terrestrial ecosystem has generally shifted from a carbon source to a carbon sink, with an average carbon sequestration capacity of 2.4±0.8 Pg(C) a-1 during the period 2015–2024. China’s terrestrial ecosystem constitutes a significant global carbon sink, currently exhibiting a carbon sink intensity of 0.20–0.25 Pg(C) a-1, where ecological initiatives such as afforestation expansion and vegetation restoration serve as critical contributing factors; 2) Carbon source-sink transitions are comprehensively driven by multiple factors, including climatic variables (temperature, drought, ENSO), CO2 fertilization effect, wildfires, land use/cover change, and forest age. Notably, these transitions exhibit marked regional and scale-dependent heterogeneity, as well as distinct threshold effects; (3) Future research should focus on enhancing the accuracy of carbon source/sink accounting, deepening investigations into meso- and micro-scale process mechanisms, and identifying key thresholds. These efforts aim to provide robust scientific support for ecosystem management and climate governance in the context of the carbon neutrality goal.

     

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